Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 07/30 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins/NY Mets Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Twins offense looked about as bad as it could last night, but they get another chance at a lefthanded pitcher tonight and I think they bounce back. I’m still a believer in their strength against lefties like Sean Manaea, who has worse numbers in home games this year and career numbers against Twins hitters of a .308 average and .881 OPS allowed.

But if the Mets bats are still alive from last night they could make things tough on David Festa tonight, who will need to prove a lot more before I stop fading him. There’s a big wind blowing out at Citi Field tonight, so expect these teams to clear a fairly low total here.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

There are only a few Twins with a decent amount of experience against Sean Manaea, and these three have had the most success in their at-bats. If the Twins are going to bounce back offensively and get back to raking against lefties, these players will play a critical role.

0.25 Unit – Carlos Santana Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160)

0.25 Unit – Willi Castro Over 1.5 Total Bases (+165)

0.25 Unit – Christian Vazquez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+215)

MLB (0.5 Unit) KC Royals -1.5 @ Chicago White Sox (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI

The White Sox have now lost 15 games in a row, so I don’t know how I can do anything but fade them against a team that has dominated the season series. Kansas City needs to keep capitalizing on games like this to maintain playoff positioning, and a 10-1 record against Chicago this season suggests they probably will. They’ve won 9 of those 10 games by multiple runs, and the White Sox have lost 11 of these 15 straight by multiple runs.

Royals starter Michael Wacha has a 0.90 ERA and .152 opponent on-base average in 3 starts against Chicago this season, along with a .141 average and .415 OPS allowed to their lineup in his career. Any White Sox pitcher not named Garrett Crochet is going to get hit hard by this Royals lineup, so look for the streaks to continue tonight.

MLB (0.25 Unit) LA Dodgers @ San Diego Padres ML (+115; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on SDPA

The Padres actually lead the season series against the division-leading Dodgers 5-3 this year, and I think they have an advantage on the mound tonight. San Diego is starting Matt Waldron tonight, whose knuckleball the Dodgers have really struggled against this season. And tonight they’ll be without several key bats, so the usual potent offense will not be as scary.

And Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow has fallen off lately with a 7.71 ERA in his past 3 starts, and LA lost his only start in San Diego this season. The Padres are definitely the hotter team in this matchup, but the Dodgers are still priced as the Dodgers, so I’ll take a shot on the home dog tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Washington Nationals/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

This matchup has a bit of déjà vu from yesterday, and I think similar results are coming. Last night’s game featured a lefthanded starter for Washington who struggles on the road, against a D’backs pitcher who struggles at home, and it flew over. It doesn’t get much more struggling-lefty-on-the-road than Patrick Corbin, who has a 5.52 ERA and .326 opponent on-base average in road games.

Arizona crushes lefties like no one else, so they should jump all over Corbin tonight. Hopefully those runs are needed to support Ryne Nelson who has had significant issues at Chase Field this year with a 6.21 ERA and .330 opponent on-base average. As a righty he puts the Nationals and their hot offense back to their preferred split, so both teams should trade runs all night.

Bonus Bet: (0.25 Unit) Ketel Marte Over 2.5 Total Bases (+150; Odds via DraftKings)

Marte crushes Patrick Corbin so badly that he’s a rare case of laying juice on over 1.5 total bases tonight. So I’ll go another rung up the ladder to 2.5 with a juicy return for a player who has a .417 average and 1.462 OPS against Corbin in his career.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2401-2200 ATS (+97.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.