Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 07/31 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Washington Nationals/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:40 PM CT on MASN2

Here we are again, with a lefty starting for Washington against this red hot Arizona offense, and now a lower total to be cleared. That number is lower than the past two nights because of Zac Gallen starting for the D’backs, but after two straight games of 17 runs, I’m not changing my approach. And Gallen has not been his usual self lately, posting a 6.00 ERA in July with 3 subpar home starts, so I expect him to give up some runs today.

But the way Arizona is hitting right now, especially against lefties, should make life miserable for MacKenzie Gore who already has allowed a .342 average against D’backs hitters in his career. Against Gore and a worn out Nats bullpen, Arizona could very well clear this total on their own like they’ve done the past two games, so I’m on the over once again.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Brayan Bello Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 3:10 PM CT on NESN

The Mariners have been completely rejuvenated at the plate the past 5 games, and I think it continues today against a vulnerable starter for Boston. They’ll send out Brayan Bello again today, and it never goes well for the Red Sox righty in Fenway as he owns a 6.11 ERA and .298 opponent on-base average at home this season.

Bello has allowed the visitor to go over this total in his past 6 home starts, and this hot Mariners lineup should be no different. All 5 opposing starters during this Seattle hot streak have allowed at least 3 runs, so look for Bello to get tagged early and often today.

MLB (1 Unit) Colorado Rockies/LA Angels Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on COLR

After combining for 17 runs last night in the series opener, I think these offenses will have plenty left in the tank against two very bad starting pitchers. Kyle Freeland for Colorado is back to being his usual self after a surprising month, and he’s always worth fading on the road with his 9.96 ERA and .389 opponent on-base average.

The Angels sending Davis Daniel out isn’t much better, as the rookie has been rocked in his past two starts. It gets even worse once the bullpens get involved, including the league’s most generous unit for the Rockies. With the wind blowing out as usual at Angel Stadium, look for this one to be another slugfest against bad pitching.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +96.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.