Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/02 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/NY Yankees Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on YES

It seems like whatever weird power outage impacted the Yankees has been resolved, as they’ve averaged 6.5 runs per game since the All-Star break, and their past 7 games overall have flown over this total. There’s a distinct possibility that they’ll do most of the work to get this game over the total, as the Yankees have teed off on Toronto starter Kevin Gausman this season.

The Jays righty has posted a 10.97 ERA, a 2.36 WHIP, and a .333 opponent on-base average in 3 starts against New York this year, with those games going 2-0-1 over this total. And with the Blue Jays calling up a lot of prospects and swinging away right now, they should be good for a couple runs themselves against Marcus Stroman who is always worse at Yankee Stadium, so I see this one getting over tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Cleveland Guardians Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on MASN

Speaking of AL East teams that went through a weird power outage, the Orioles seem to be out the other side of their offensive slump and it should create plenty of scoring tonight. Baltimore has seen their post All-Star break games go 10-2-2 over tonight’s total, and with a couple of struggling starters I think we’ll see another.

Carlos Carrasco in particular should get shelled by this Orioles lineup, as he’s back to his usual self after consecutive starts allowing 6 runs. Carrasco always struggles more with his command and allowing base runners in home games, so look for this potent Baltimore offense to take advantage. And after putting 10 runs up last night, the Guardians should be able to get to Dean Kremer here. These teams tend to either get into a slugfest or a tight pitcher’s duel, but with these starters I’m anticipating the former for tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Colorado Rockies Team Total Over 3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on SDPA

This Padres team is red hot overall, but I think they’ll need all the offense they can get tonight to compensate for what they’ll give up. They’re starting Randy Vasquez here who has been absolutely crushed by the Rockies this season, with two starts against Colorado resulting in a 12.79 ERA and .452 opponent on-base average.

Vasquez is highly volatile and the Rockies are hitting much better lately, plus they’ve average 5.6 runs per game against the Padres this season, so this lower number is very reachable. Since the Padres are on such a hot streak they’re big favorites against a bad team, but that just suppresses Colorado’s team total to where I think they clear it easily tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +95.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.