Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/05 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins ML @ Chicago Cubs (-115; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Twins bats really woke up over the weekend against bad pitching from the other Chicago team, and tonight they’ll see perhaps the most volatile starter the Cubs have. They can very easily stay hot against Kyle Hendricks, who has a 6.23 ERA at home this season, with a .303 opponent on-base average.

The Twins can send a lot of lefthanded bats at him which is his biggest weakness, and send him into one of his patented tailspins. I’m beginning to trust David Festa a little bit too, and think he gives Minnesota the pitching edge here, especially with Chicago’s struggles against righthanded pitching. The Twins are simply the better, hotter team with more reliable bats, so I’m backing them here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Max Kepler Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135; Odds via DraftKings)

One of those lefthanded bats that Hendricks should struggle with tonight is Max Kepler, who has faced him 3 times in his career. In two of those, Kepler sent the ball over the fence, and in the other he had to settle for a double, so I’d call that a pretty solid success rate. Kepler has gone over this number in 6 of his past 11 games, so I’ll definitely take the juicy return here.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports GL

Arizona has been tearing the cover off the ball lately, and against a bad pitcher today I think they keep it going. Logan Allen has a hefty 6.42 ERA at home this season and struggles against righthanded bats, which comprise the most important of Arizona’s lineup. That’s why they crush lefties like Allen, with the best batting average and most runs scored against lefties in all of baseball. With a 10-5 record over this total since the All-Star break, this is an obvious situation to back Arizona to keep up that pace here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) SF Giants First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 5:45 PM CT on NBCS-BA

The Giants have the good fortune of facing Patrick Corbin, fresh off one of his absolute blowup games, and should further his misery today. Corbin has awful numbers against the Giants lineup, owning a composite .446 batting average and 1.248 OPS allowed. Which makes sense considering San Fran is 7th in scoring and 4th in weighted runs created against lefties, and Corbin is no normal lefty. The last time he saw them was back in April, when he allowed 7 runs on 11 hits, with 5 of those runs coming in the first 5 innings. Corbin is better at home, but not better enough, and with hot weather and the wind blowing out at Nationals Park, expect the Giants to jump on Corbin early and often.

Bonus Bets (0.5 Unit Each): Mark Canha Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) & Michael Conforto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)

These are the two Giant hitters with the most experience against Corbin, and it’s been good experience for them. Canha owns a .462 average and 1.115 OPS against the Nats lefty, while Conforto has a .353 average and 1.224 OPS, so they should be key to creating a big day at the plate for San Fran here.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

It’s a shame that we don’t get to watch Rooker do this in meaningful games that impact a playoff race, but that won’t stop me from betting his props. I actually can’t believe this is a plus-juice return considering the run he’s on, going over this number in 14 of his past 20 games. That’s a 70% success rate on this prop, far from the 44.4% implied probability that the juice represents here. And going against White Sox pitching should be the first sign that this number is out of whack, so back the Oakland DH with confidence today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +98.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.