Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/08 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels First 5 Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network

The Yankees are massive favorites in this game, laying almost three dollars in some places. Hint: they shouldn’t be that big of favorites against a left-handed starter. But it creates a series delta in the team totals and drives LA’s isolated number in the first five innings to a ridiculously low range. No, the Angels aren’t very good, but not much is required to get to Nestor Cortes these days.

LA is in their preferred hitting split with Cortes being a lefty, and the Yankees starter has really fallen off lately, posting a 6.93 ERA in July. And in six of his past seven starts, Cortes has allowed the opponent to go over this total with an average of 3.6 runs in the first five innings. This number is simply out of whack due to the game line, and I’m jumping in.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Nestor Cortes Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+105; Odds via Caesars)

If Cortes is going to give up multiple runs in the first five innings, he’s bound to go over this prop total as well. It’s happened in six of his past seven starts just like the F5 number, and at this plus-juice return I’ll take a shot that his struggles continue.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+120; Odds via Caesars): 6:07 PM CT on MLB Network

I’ll take any way I can to fade Kevin Gausman at home, but with his usually reliable prop totals holding heavy juice, I’m looking this direction instead. For whatever reason, Gausman has been atrocious in Toronto this season, posting a 6.39 ERA with elevated WHIP and opponent on-base average numbers as well.

In his past 8 home starts, the visitor has gone over this total 7 times with an average of 4.1 runs in the first 5 innings. One of those starts came against this Orioles squad who put 5 on the board in the F5, so with an elite lineup that tends to crush Blue Jays pitching, I see them doing plenty of early damage tonight.

Bonus Bet (Degenerate Only): Kevin Gausman Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-150; Odds via DraftKings)

If you have a bigger juice tolerance than I do, this is the bet for you. Gausman has gone over this in 8 straight home starts and 9 of 11 home games overall, so the books know what’s coming, they’re just trying to scare you away with the heavy juice.

MLB (1 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 (-125; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

(Insert siren emoji here) Jordan Montgomery starting at home against a competent offense alert! There is something severely broken inside this poor man, and he is simply a gas can any time he takes the mound at Chase Field. Montgomery has now compiled an 8.39 ERA, a 2.07 WHIP, and a .368 opponent on-base average in home games, just monstrous numbers that I don’t see an end to here.

The Phillies aren’t elite against lefties, but you don’t need to be against Montgomery, and they have decent composite numbers of a .310 average and .917 OPS against him. I’m not here to explain why he’s so bad at home compared to the road, but this is a situation I can’t ignore and I’m going all in.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110; Odds via BetMGM)

I was astounded to see plus juice on the over at this number, it feels like stealing. In these disastrous home starts on the year, Montgomery is 7-2 to the over on this prop, with the only unders coming against the weak bats of the Tigers and White Sox. The man gave up 5 hits in the first inning in his last home start against a Nationals team that isn’t great against lefties, so one of the deepest lineups in baseball should have an easy time racking up base knocks.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +97.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.