Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/09 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.6 Unit) Texas Rangers/NY Yankees First 5 Innings Under 5 (-120; Odds via BetMGM): 6:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

As scary as the Yankees lineup looks on paper, just put them up against a lefthanded pitcher and watch them wilt. Look no further than last night’s game against replacement-level lefty Tyler Anderson, who held them to a single run in his 6 innings of work.

They’ll have to face lefty Cody Bradford tonight, who isn’t anything special but should continue to confound this lineup in their laughably bad split. But I don’t think the Rangers get much done either against Carlos Rodon, who seems to have come out the other side of his struggles from a month ago. With cool and windy weather in The Bronx, hitting conditions will favor pitchers and limit the early scoring tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies -0.5 First 5 Innings @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-105; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

I’m confident enough to say the Phillies have broken out of their slump with some impressive wins in recent days. I see them getting off to another strong start in this game fueled by a pretty significant pitching mismatch. Zach Wheeler rebounded nicely from a bad start to get back to his usual ways, and he has excellent career numbers of a .200 average and .611 OPS allowed to Arizona’s hitters.

If he can hold them down, then another Diamondbacks starter who struggles at home should be easy for them to exploit. Ryne Nelson has surrendered a 5.33 ERA and .303 opponent on-base average in home games, and the Phillies have a composite .386 average and 1.016 OPS against him. I’ve noticed the D’backs starting games slowly and digging holes lately, and I think they fall behind early in this one too.

Degenerates

MLB Cleveland Guardians Game 2 Team Total Over 4.5 (+115; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on Apple TV+

Let’s just tell it like it is, Twins pitching has taken a beating lately. They’re allowing 4.8 runs per game since the All-Star break, and haven’t exactly faced a schedule of the offensive elites. The sign that things are rough is seeing Louie Varland come back up for a start tonight, especially against a Guardians team that can rake against lefties. Cleveland is 3rd in scoring against lefties this season, and are up near the top of many metrics for their much preferred hitting split, so I would not be surprised to see them cash this juicy return tonight.

Tiny Nick has gained +101.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.