Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/13 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit

It’s surprising to see this number where it is against this particular team. Skubal has mostly been unhittable this season with 10.74 K’s per 9 innings, and almost 1.2 per inning. He’s gone over this total in his past 3 starts and 5 of his past 6 overall, which includes his last outing against this very Mariners squad.

Consecutive starts against the same team can be tricky, but we’re talking about a Seattle team that leads the league in strikeout rate and their lineup has an even higher K-rate in their careers against Skubal. With plus juice coming my way, I’ll look for Skubal to have another strong performance against an opponent that loves to swing and miss.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Miami Marlins/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on NBCS-PHI

The Phillies are having serious pitching problems, getting shelled the past couple games in Arizona, and I don’t think things improve here. Taijuan Walker makes his return to the rotation, and it’s been rough most of the season with a 5.59 ERA at home. Don’t be fooled by this Marlins team, it’s a sneaky-good offense at the top of the order with Xavier Edwards and Jake Burger hitting everything right now, and they’re much better against righties like Walker.

But with the Phillies going against a rookie starter in Valente Bellozo and a worn-out bullpen that’s getting crushed lately, we should see them put up plenty of runs as well. That should further the trend in the season series where these teams have gone 5-2 over this total with 9.3 runs on average.

Bonus Bets (0.25 Unit Each) Jake Burger Over 1.5 Total Bases & Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 Each; Odds via DraftKings)

These guys are simply on fire lately and should continue it against a sub-par righty tonight. Edwards crushes right-handed pitching with a .371 average and .900 OPS, plus he’s been incredible on the road with a .411 average and 1.021 OPS. Burger is a similar case, with better numbers against righties and away from home, so with plus-juice returns here I’m expecting a big night from both of what qualifies as stars for the Marlins.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Nestor Cortes Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI

Cortes is benefiting from some serious presumptions in this game with the Yankees installed as three-dollar favorites market wide. That pushes the Chicago team total down considerably, and therefore the earned runs prop for Cortes has to deflate as well. But I don’t have any confidence in Cortes anymore as he seems like a novelty act that has more than run its course.

He has gone over this number in 5 straight starts and 7 of the past 8, plus he’s been awful on the road this season with a 6.08 ERA and .301 opponent on-base average. The White Sox probably aren’t putting up another 12 runs like they did last night, but they are better against lefties like Cortes and I think they can further his trend of allowing plenty of runs.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Austin Gomber Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on COLR

Admittedly, Gomber has not gone over this number very often on the year, only 4 times in fact and he’s allowing just 5.8 hits per outing. He’s faced Arizona twice this year, back in the first couple weeks of the season when the Diamondbacks stumbled out of the gates, and allowed 6 hits in both outings.

Since then though the Snakes have turned into the best offense against lefties like Gomber in all of baseball, so there’s room for improvement on that 6 hits number. Plus, Arizona is red hot, scoring 6.4 runs per game since the All-Star break and averaging 12.2 hits per game on this current home stand. The D’backs have done worse things than 7 hits to much better lefties than Gomber lately, so I like the plus-juice return here for them to keep raking.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +100.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.