Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/16 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies Team Total Over 5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on NBCS-PHI

Philadelphia’s offense has woken up the past couple of days, and I don’t expect them to fall asleep here. Yesterday they torched Nationals pitching for 13 runs, including 9 off starter Mitchell Parker who is a decent lefty having a fairly good season. But they’ll face one of the worst lefties in recent MLB memory today as Patrick Corbin takes the mound, and this could get ugly again.

Corbin has never done well against these Phillies who are arguably the best against lefties in the league, plus he’s been atrocious on the road this season with a 6.68 ERA and .350 opponent on-base average. Against this true gas can starter and a worn out bullpen, the Phillies should stay hot with a big night on the scoreboard.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Patrick Corbin Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

The Phillies jumped all over Parker last night for 10 hits in just 3 innings before he was mercifully pulled, and they very well could do the same thing to Corbin tonight. Putting an offense that’s either 1st or 2nd in MLB for every metric versus lefthanded pitching up against this particular lefty just doesn’t seem fair. Corbin hasn’t faced Philly since early April when he surrendered 9 hits, and he’s allowed 28 hits in his past 13 innings of work, so this could get out of hand early.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 6:05 PM CT on NESN

I know I’m not supposed to lay the run line with a home team, but this is a mismatch that can’t be ignored and neither can the price here. To their credit, Baltimore is one of the better teams against the run line this season, with the 4th-best record in baseball, and a lot of it has been built against Boston. The Orioles lead the season series 6-1, and all 6 of those wins have come by multiple runs with a plus-25 run differential.

Orioles starter Corbin Burnes has engineered two of those wins, compiling a 0.64 ERA and .106 opponent on-base average against Boston in the process. Red Sox starter Cooper Criswell is back in the starting rotation, but it didn’t go well for him the last time he visited Baltimore, allowing 7 runs in 4 innings as the Orioles cruised 11-3 that day. So being able to get a plus-juice return on the run line, which has been the margin in every meeting this season, presents good enough value here for me to bend my rule.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Mercury/Indiana Fever Over 173.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ION

Both meetings between these teams on the season have been high-scoring, and there’s plenty of reason to believe this one will be as well. These squads have hit 170 and 181 points in their two matchups so far, and the first should’ve seen more points if not for a ridiculous collapse in the second half by Phoenix.

Both of these teams are up-tempo with solid offenses, take a lot of three’s, and happen to be the two teams allowing the most three’s in the league, so more points should be coming here. Phoenix is also on a back-to-back tonight after their trio of stars already played in the Olympics, so defensive effort is not likely to be at a high level. I think that creates a game more like the second meeting that climbs into the 180-point range or above.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +100.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.