Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/18 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.75 Unit) LA Sparks/Las Vegas Aces Over 171.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on NBATV

These teams have met three times this season, with the lowest combined output being 171 points. But I think we see a game today that’s closer to the average of 183.3 points these teams have combined for in those games. That’s due to two main factors, the first being Las Vegas’s attitude today that I’m sure is unhappy after getting shut down by the Liberty yesterday.

The Aces have a habit of bouncing back in a big way from losses, especially when the opponent is a weak team like LA, so that impending eruption probably drives the majority of scoring today. It won’t be difficult against a bad Sparks defense that has allowed 193 points in two games since the league picked back up. But the Aces have defensive problems of their own, and LA has been able to consistently exploit them this season, so look for a lack of defense that gets this game over the total tonight.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Chicago Sky/Phoenix Mercury Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on AZ Family

Don’t let the first meeting between these teams on Thursday fool you, the defenses here are not good enough to justify this low of a total. The only reason that game got to a mere 150 points is atrocious shooting from Chicago, an outlier event that I don’t expect to happen here. The Sky bounced back to put 90 on the Sparks yesterday, but that creating a back-to-back for them is a big key here as well.

We’ve seen no-rest spots be difficult for teams so far this week as they get their legs back, creating high-scoring games in the process. If the Sky figured out their three-point shooting yesterday, they’ll continue that success here against a generous perimeter defense. I think they’re going to need it against a Phoenix offense that’s clicking right now, and with both teams fairly fast-paced, plenty of points should be coming here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Tonight’s Little League Classic should make at least a few Yankees look like Little Leaguers against an elite pitcher here. Tarik Skubal looks to stay untouchable against a team that usually looks like they belong in Little League when they face lefties like him. New York has a moderately high K-rate against lefthanded pitching this season, but Skubal has one of his highest cumulative K-rates against the Yankee lineup. So he should have a great chance to get over this number just like he has in four straight starts, and did in his other meeting with the Yankees when he fanned 12 in just 6 innings.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +100.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.