Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/21 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 First 5 Innings @ Miami Marlins (-115; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

I’ve spent a lot of time hating on Jordan Montgomery this summer, but only when he’s pitching at home. On the road he has been a different pitcher entirely, with an ERA that’s more than 3 points lower and an opponent on-base average nearly 100 points lower. I think he can keep it going against a Marlins team that struggles against lefties like him, ranked 28th in batting average, and 29th in wOBA and OPS.

And the Diamondbacks should have no trouble getting to Roddery Munoz here, who owns a 6.63 ERA at home and his past 8 starts have seen the opponent go 6-2 on the F5 run line. Arizona leads baseball in first five innings scoring this season, so look for them to take advantage of this pitching matchup and take an early lead.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Max Fried Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:20 PM CT on NBCS-PH

Fried simply doesn’t fare well against the Phillies, and tonight’s game looks like another spot where he’ll struggle. Philadelphia’s bats have a cumulative .319 average and .909 OPS against Fried for their careers, which makes sense given how good they are against lefties, and he’s been hit hard by them this season too. The Phillies have seen him twice this year, with Fried posting a 10.80 ERA and .394 on-base average allowed. He just hasn’t been sharp lately either, going over this prop in 3 straight while posting a 7.90 ERA this month, so look for the Phillies to jump on him early tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Phillies First 5 Innings ML (-110; Odds via BetMGM)

If the Phillies can get to Fried tonight, then I think they hold a lead after 5 innings and probably don’t look back. They’ll be starting Aaron Nola here, who has very good career numbers against Atlanta of a .229 average and .690 on-base average allowed. The Phillies haven’t done well against the Braves this season, but they have the pitching advantage here and Atlanta is just so injury-plagued that I think they capitalize for an early lead tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +95.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.