Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/29 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Darius Taylor Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

This is a wildly low total given how Minnesota plays and PJ Fleck coaches. Not many teams want to run the ball as much as the Gophers do, especially at home, as they were 13th in rushing play percentage last season. They should improve at quarterback with Max Brosmer transferring in, but pounding the rock behind a lead back is what PJ Fleck loves to do. So Darius Taylor should be the beneficiary of that style, as he emerged as Minnesota’s go-to back when healthy last season. Against a North Carolina defense that was 93rd against the run last season, and surrendered 138 to Taylor in Week 3, look for the Gophers to establish the ground game behind a big night from their young back.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) New Hampshire @ UCF -39.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Backing UCF under Gus Malzahn in games like this is never a bad idea despite the massive number. The Gus Bus rolls over outmatched opponents like this poor New Hampshire team, as he is 6-0 as the Knights head coach when laying 23 or more points at home. That includes two instances of laying 40 or more like they are today, and it’s the style of offense that just gets them rolling downhill. Even when run conservatively, Malzahn’s option offense is too well-designed for FCS schools to handle. And the smaller, slower UNH team will eventually just wilt in the Florida heat, allowing the Knights to run this up either intentionally or accidentally.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) NDSU/Colorado Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

This game should be a true shootout as I don’t see either team being able to stop the other. An excellent Colorado offense led by Shedeur Sanders should be able to throw all over an NDSU secondary that is without its All-American safety today, and had trouble tackling in space last season. It’s obvious from listening to Coach Prime that he’s in his feelings about this team, so I would expect them to run it up and make a statement if given the opportunity.

But until the Buffaloes can prove that they’ve fixed their defense, particularly against the run, then I’m expecting them to surrender plenty of points on a weekly basis. NDSU runs the ball with elite level execution behind an o-line that keeps churning out NFL talent, so look for the Bison to put plenty on the board as well. That should lead to a game that gets well into the 60’s and beyond tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) NDSU First Half Team Total Over 11.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

The first half is where NDSU is most likely to be able to run their preferred offense, keep it on the ground, and have the most success. They return both starting running backs and add freshman CharMar Brown who might be the best of the trio. I simply don’t trust the Colorado defense, not after it allowed 17.8 first half points per game last season, ranking 113th in the country. Because of Colorado’s offensive style there should be plenty of possessions in this game, especially early, and the Bison should cash in enough of them here.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) NDSU +9.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Colorado to cover is the most popular bet in the country right now, so what could possibly go wrong with that? NDSU is not going to go quietly in this one, as they’re a program that gives FBS teams fits, notching a 7-0 ATS record in their past 7 games against bigger programs with 6 outright wins. Despite all the love for the Buffs in the betting market this number has refused to go to double digits, meaning smart money loves the Bison to keep it relatively close, and I do too.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +96.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.