Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/31 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Akron/Ohio State Under 57.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on CBS

If Ohio State is going to justify its short odds to claim a national title, I think they’ll have to do it on the strength of the defense. Fortunately for the Buckeyes, they should have arguably the best defense in the country to lean on, and I think they’ll especially have to lean on it early. It’s going to take some time to get the offense firing on all cylinders with new QB Will Howard and new coordinator Chip Kelly, despite all the talent they have.

What those two new names mean, however, is running the football a lot, and that should help keep the clock moving in today’s game. Akron is not going to put up a fight in this game, but they will defend the run fairly well with their top-4 tacklers back this season for a run defense that was actually elite against running quarterbacks. With the Zips likely to get blanked here, I think time runs out in this one before Ohio State crosses this total on their own.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Western Kentucky/Alabama Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Just because Nick Saban retired from coaching doesn’t mean Alabama’s roster isn’t packed full of aliens who can score from anywhere on the field. They still have a special athlete at quarterback in Jalen Milroe who will likely be unlocked in new coach Kalen DeBoer’s system. And speaking of DeBoer, if you’re going to replace the GOAT of college football coaching, you’d better give the Tide faithful something to talk about. I think that means pedal to the metal all game with a ton of points hung on an overmatched Western Kentucky defense.

But don’t sell WKU short in the offense department, as the Hilltoppers still run an excellent Air Raid offense with their own athletic marvel at QB in TJ Finley. The Toppers visited Ohio State last season and it turned into a 63-10 laugher, so there’s precedent for them getting into a high-scoring affair with an elite opponent. With both teams being offense-centric and playing up-tempo styles, I see plenty of points to kick off the post-Saban era.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Furman @ Ole Miss -42 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network+

I’ve said it a few times this week and I’ll say it again here, that you just need to lay the big number and trust the elite team to run it up in these games. I like the chances for Ole Miss to do exactly that, as this is probably the deepest team they’ve had under Lane Kiffin yet. That’s what I like to see when laying a big number like this, since the Rebels will eventually pull the starters but the backups will still be elite talents capable of accidentally running up the score. It’s not like Kiffin is any stranger to running it up in games like this though, notching results of 73-7 and 59-3 the past two seasons. Ole Miss is likely to 8 or 9 touchdowns on the board themselves in this game, and that’s an easy recipe for covering a 6 score spread.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) North Alabama @ Memphis -37.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Watch out for Memphis this season, as they could be the Group of 5 representatives in the CFP, they’re that good. If they want to reach those heights, it had better start with an absolute demolition of this cupcake they have in front of them today. North Alabama just had 370 yards and 37 points put on them by fellow FCS school SE Missouri State last week, so they should stand zero chance of slowing down an elite Memphis offense. The Tigers are not in any kind of lookahead spot here with Troy on deck, so crushing an outmatched UNA squad here should be the first step in garnering attention from the CFP committee.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +98.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.