Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/03 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Washington Mystics/Dallas Wings Over 172.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

Over two months ago, these teams played on back-to-back nights in DC with 166 and 176 points coming in those games. So this total is kind of lazily splitting the difference there, but is ignoring a key factor. During that time, Dallas was extremely beat up and missing several key players, which showed in their offensive output. The Wings are healthy now though, and playing at the level offensively that was expected of them this season, averaging 89.9 PPG since the season picked back up.

But they still can’t defend, ranked dead last in allowing 90.7 PPG, and their up-tempo style keeps generating shootouts and a 12-4 over record in home games. The Mystics can’t defend particularly well either, and will give up plenty of points if Dallas is in the mood to get revenge for the two blowout losses. But Washington’s high-volume three-point shooting will help to create the style needed for a shootout here, and I think this one cruises over the total.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 42.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

If this turns into the shootout I expect it to be, then that should mean the Mystics going wild in the first half. They’re shooting it well right now, having just dropped 42 in the first half on the best scoring defense in the league on Saturday, so the worst scoring defense in the league should be no trouble. In those two previous matchups the Mystics had 51 and 46 at the half, and I see this game shaping up as something pretty similar.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Baltimore Orioles Over 8.5 (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 5:35 PM CT on MASN2

Much like yesterday when the Orioles ran away with a 13-3 win, I’m expecting them to tee off on putrid White Sox pitching enough to put this total well within reach. Chicago rookie Nick Nastrini has had two good home starts in a row, but the road has been awful to him as he’s compiled a 14.81 ERA, a 2.91 WHIP, and .348 opponent on-base average in those starts.

An Orioles team that has always taken advantage of bad pitching should jump all over him and a truly awful bullpen. But the White Sox should also be in line to contribute runs today, as it doesn’t take much to score on Cade Povich who takes the mound for Baltimore. The lefty has allowed 5-plus runs in 4 of his past 6 starts, and the White Sox are better against lefties, so if they put up a few runs this should fly over the moderate total.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Washington Nationals/Miami Marlins Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

This is a pretty low total for a Patrick Corbin road start, especially in a ballpark where overs thrive. Corbin has been awful on the road, posting a 6.52 ERA and .351 opponent on-base average this season, and allowed 7 runs in his only visit to loanDepot Park back in April, a game that saw 21 runs. That’s an outlier total but not an outlier result, as Marlins home games lead MLB for best over record at 47-17-5. With Corbin and Max Meyer, who has seen his home starts go 4-1 over this total, I think we’re in for another over on such a moderate number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +100.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.