Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/04 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Christopher Sanchez Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (+120; Odds via BetMGM): 2:07 PM CT on NBC10

Sanchez faces a hot offense today, and I think the plus-juice return here is worth a shot given his history and home/road splits. The Jays have racked up 27 runs in their past 3 games, so Sanchez going on the road to face this hot and free-swinging offense could be dangerous. The road is where he has really struggled, posting a 5.43 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and .324 opponent on-base average. He’s also 8-4 over this total in his road starts, and has allowed 7 or more hits in 6 of his past 8 starts overall. I think the hits keep coming today regardless of how many runs he allows or the result on the scoreboard.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles Team Total Over 5.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 5:35 PM CT on MASN2

I have to keep betting against the White Sox pitching staff, but with a competent starter going for Baltimore it feels necessary to isolate the Orioles team total. I definitely like the plus-money price for them to continue doing what they’ve done to the awful Chicago pitchers the past two nights, putting up 13 and 9 runs. And the O’s have now gone over this total in 4 of the 6 meetings overall this season. White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon had a rough August with a 6.31 ERA and 1.80 WHIP, plus he struggles on the road, so look for the Orioles to continue mashing on Cannon and the atrocious relievers behind him.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Boston Red Sox @ NY Mets ML (-105; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM CT on SNY

These teams are headed in completely opposite directions, and this line is simply not reflective of that fact. The Mets are on fire, putting it all together at the plate and getting solid enough pitching, which has allowed them to take the first two games of this series pretty easily. Boston is continuing their post All-Star break swoon with a 3-9 run in the past 12 games, bringing this team that belongs around .500 right back there.

Their supposed ace Tanner Houck has not been the same since the All-Star Game, and a red-hot Mets lineup should be able to continue his woes tonight. And while I don’t love backing Tylor Megill, he should get enough run support here to keep the Mets ahead of a Boston offense that has not been hitting well. At the end of the day this feels like a disrespectful number given the current state of these teams, so I’ll back New York to keep it rolling.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +102.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.