Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/07 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Jacksonville State @ Louisville -28.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN+

I don’t understand what I might be missing for this game, and why Louisville hasn’t been pushed further up to the next key number. The Cardinals are good and will be a competitor for the ACC title, and while this might be a little bit of a lookahead spot to Georgia Tech next week, I don’t think it will matter.

Jacksonville State is just that bad defensively, getting rolled 55-27 in their own building last week by a rebuilding Coastal Carolina squad that put 552 yards on them. An excellent Louisville offense led by Tyler Shough should carve the Gamecocks up, and in a spot where style points matter for the Cardinals, I’m expecting them to roll.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Middle Tennessee/Ole Miss Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:15 PM CT on SEC Network

This might be another case of Ole Miss reaching the total on their own. After dropping 76 points last week on a helpless Furman squad, they’ll have a chance to do it again to a Middle Tennessee team that showed plenty of defensive issues in their first game. The Blue Raiders let an FCS team in Tennessee Tech score 3 touchdowns against them last week, so arguably the most lethal and creative offense in the country should have no trouble.

As I said last week about Ole Miss, this is the deepest team Lane Kiffin has had, and they showed it last week with the backups scoring 24 points almost on accident. The Rebels should be able to do whatever they want in this game, and with this total sitting below the key number of exactly 9 touchdowns, it’s one that Ole Miss could eclipse themselves.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) South Florida @ Alabama -31 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Well, it doesn’t appear that Alabama is skipping a beat in handing the program from Nick Saban to Kalen DeBoer, and that’s a scary proposition. DeBoer did what I expected him to last week in making an opening statement, and this is an opportunity for him to make another. What better way to help the Bama faithful forget about Saban than blow out the Group of 5 team that had the Tide on the ropes last season?

South Florida was very competitive against Alabama last year, and I’m sure the players who stuck around want to atone for that game. Especially quarterback Jalen Milroe who didn’t get to play in that matchup after getting benched, so I’d expect him to go off today. This Tide defense looks nasty, complementing an offense that should continue to grow under DeBoer, and I think USF will be the next victim in a series of statement games by Alabama.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Georgia Southern/Nevada Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on truTV

I’m very surprised by Nevada’s performances in the first two games of the Jeff Choate era in Reno. The Wolf Pack were supposed to be one of the worst in FBS this season, but the offense has been very impressive in scoring 28 and 24 points. If they can replicate that production today, then this game has a great chance to fly over the total.

Nevada should be able to get whatever they want against a Georgia Southern defense that was torched for 56 points last week, although they have far less talent than the Boise team that did it. Still, the Wolf Pack have shown the ability to run the ball well which was the GaSo weakness, and with their own defensive problems a very good Eagles passing game should feast again. A key might be elevation wearing out an already tired Eagles defense, so look for this one to get over a total that’s just below a key number.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Houston Team Total Under 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on SEC Network

Houston was simply awful last week, only managing 7 points against a UNLV defense that is not expected to be very good. And those points came with a minute left in the game once the starters had been pulled for both teams in a blowout, so the Cougars have serious problems on offense. So I don’t see how they get to double digits on the road against what is slowly but surely turning into an elite defense.

That was always the goal for Brent Venables when he took over in Norman where defense was optional for a generation, and he appears to have built a defense strong enough to hold down bad teams like this. Houston quarterback Donovan Smith might be seeing ghosts tonight as he’s pressured all game by an elite defensive front, so I expect more turnovers out of him. And with OU able to run the ball and control the game, they should limit Houston’s possessions and might be in line to pitch a shutout here.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Boise State/Oregon Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Peacock

I see the Dillon Gabriel experiment at Oregon got off to a slow start, only managing 24 points in an unnecessarily close game against Idaho last week where they could have been looking ahead to tonight. But those struggles won’t last, and this is a good opportunity to buy relatively low on a Ducks offense that’s likely to be in a foul (fowl?) mood after that embarrassing game. Strangely enough, they might be facing a worse defense tonight as Boise had an embarrassing performance of their own on that side of the ball last week.

If the Broncos can’t keep Georgia Southern from putting up 460 yards and 45 points, I don’t know what hope they have of containing Oregon’s elite talent and speed in a bounce back spot. But Boise has plenty of firepower themselves, especially if Ashton Geanty is going to continue to run wild. And as a CFP hopeful from the Group of 5, the Broncos will put up a fight in this massive game for them, so expect points to be coming tonight.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Texas Tech/Washington State Over 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on FOX

RIP to the Pac-12 because this is exactly the kind of Pac-12-After-Dark matchup I love seeing to close a day of college football. There should be points galore in this one after both teams had their defenses torched by FCS programs last week. Particularly Texas Tech, who inexcusably allowed Abilene Christian to put 45 on them in regulation and then another touchdown in overtime.

That’s certainly more embarrassing than Wazzu allowing 30 to Portland State, but not by much, so both defenses have serious problems. Both offenses have a lot of talent though, and play significantly up-tempo styles, so this should be a game where both teams trade shots all night with perfect weather in Pullman.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Houston Astros Over 8.5 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 3:10 PM CT on ARID

Beware, any team that puts a lefty in against this Diamondbacks squad. Arizona continues to crush lefthanded pitching, as they lead baseball in scoring and batting average in that split, and are second in OPS. While Yusei Kikuchi has been better in an Astros uniform, he’s been fortunate to not face any dangerous offenses since being traded from Toronto. Before the trade deadline he happened to face Arizona and was tagged for 7 runs, so the D’backs know full well how to get to him.

But they’ll have their own pitching problems today as Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound against an excellent offense. Houston has great numbers of a cumulative .322 average and .999 OPS against Rodriguez in his career, so they should put up plenty of runs themselves. So while this game features two teams jockeying for playoff position in their respective leagues, I see poor pitching and quality offense that makes this total far too low.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +102.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.