Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/09 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) NY Jets/San Francisco 49ers Under 43.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Both of these teams are going to have to prove that they have some offense tonight, and until they do I think this is a perfect spot to take the under. First of all, we’re talking about teams in the Jets and 49ers who are expected to have two of the best defenses in the league. No matter how many talented players you can name on the respective offenses, this should be a game where those strong defenses show up.

They usually do in primetime, as night games have been cashing unders at a 60% clip the past 5 seasons. You also have to factor in the likely slow start out of San Francisco here as they experience their Super Bowl loser hangover. Plus, they had a lot of personnel issues creating discontinuity during the preseason, so I wouldn’t expect their offense to be particularly sharp out of the gates. And until Aaron Rodgers proves that he has gelled with his weapons, I don’t have a ton of faith in the Jets offense, so this should be a lower-scoring game.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Deebo Samuel Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Mike Williams Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100)

0.5 Unit – Breece Hall Over 94.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 4.5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on FS1

The Twins forgot to bring their bats on the road, particularly to Kansas City where they only scored 2 runs all weekend. But I’m convinced that putting this team at home against a lefty is the best thing for them, and that’s exactly what they’ll get tonight. Not just any lefty either, a bad one in Reid Detmers who they have good numbers against, posting a cumulative .353 average and .926 OPS against the Angels starter. The Twins already put a big number on Detmers this season, and went over this total in every meeting against LA earlier in the year. With Detmers especially struggling on the road with a 6.00 ERA, look for Minnesota to get back on track with a solid night at the plate here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on NESN

Putting these two starting pitchers in hitter-friendly Fenway feels like a serious recipe for runs, and I think both teams cash in. Baltimore’s bats went cold over the weekend so they could use a bounce back, and that should come against Brayan Bello tonight. The Boston starter just can’t figure it out at home, posting a 4.92 ERA in Fenway with plenty of blowup games. Add in a Sox bullpen that has become a disaster and the Orioles have a great chance to put up a big number here.

And I think they’ll need to if they want any chance in this game, because starting Cade Povich on the road has the potential to be another disaster. The Oriole lefty has actually been good at home, but you can’t take him anywhere with his 12.56 ERA and .333 opponent on-base average in road games. The Red Sox should be able to jump on that for plenty of runs, furthering the season-long trend of 10.5 runs per game when these teams get together.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +98.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.