Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/11 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/Indiana Fever Over 178.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV

It’s a massive total here, one of the highest of the season in fact, but justifiable in my opinion. These teams played to 179 points in their first meeting this season, then just 157 in the second when Caitlin Clark had a terrible shooting night.

She’s been on fire lately though, so I see her leading the Fever to another big night offensively. That’s been the theme for Indiana lately as they push towards the playoffs, averaging 92.3 PPG their past 10 games, which has helped boost their 12-5 record to the over in home games. They should continue that against a Las Vegas team that continuously struggles defensively, plus plays at a very fast pace.

But Indiana is still the second-most generous defense in the league, so an Aces team that leads the WNBA in scoring should have a big night coming off a frustrating loss in New York. So I don’t see either defense having answers tonight for hot shooting, and that should carry this one over the big total.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 39.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on MNMT

It’s not ideal to back Washington for this number on the road, as they’re usually much more reliable at home. But they’ve been extremely reliable against Chicago in the three meetings with the Sky this season, scoring 44 and 47 first half points in the games at home, and then another 44 in the game at Chicago. That last game was just a couple weeks ago, before the Angel Reese injury that thins out Chicago’s front line against the big lineup for Washington. If the Mystics are able to score both inside and out, they’ll get into the 40’s before halftime for the fourth time this season against the Sky.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs/LA Dodgers Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on Marquee

Yesterday’s pitching matchup between these teams featured two elite starters, and they still managed to get to this total. There’s just too much offense with these two clubs right now, and I think they clear tonight’s total with ease. A Cubs offense that was setting records for runs in recent weeks should have no trouble against Bobby Miller who everyone is feasting on lately, posting a 7.40 ERA in the past 30 days. And I think the Dodgers get back on track here against lefty Jordan Wicks, as LA ranks top-3 for average, OPS, and weighted metrics against lefties. Look for both starters and their relievers to struggle tonight as these teams cruise over a moderate total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +98.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.