Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/13 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) UNLV/Kansas Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

I think we see plenty of points in this game because of the regression about to hit UNLV and their defense. The Rebels have benefited from an easy start to the season in facing a bad Houston offense and FCS Utah Tech, but that luck runs out today. They’ll have to contend with Jalon Daniels and the always dangerous Kansas offense, one that’s looking to get back on track after a rough game last week.

Jalon Daniels needs a bounce back in particular, and a UNLV defense that was supposed to be very porous this season should be a good opportunity. But I’ve also been impressed with the UNLV offense, especially the dual-threat ability shown by quarterback Matthew Sluka. With the Jayhawks sporting the typical suspect Big12 defense, look for both teams to find success offensively and clear this total.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Seattle Storm Team Total Over 89.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

All anyone does against the Dallas Wings these days is drop 90-plus points, and the Storm will be the next to do it. And they’ll be doing it again, as all three meetings of these squads this season have seen Seattle clear this total, with 92. 97, and 95 points. And after this recent 6-game losing streak for the Wings where they’ve given up at least this many points every game, they now are averaging 91.7 points allowed on the season. This is the worst defense in the league and it’s not close, so a Storm team with a strong offense that just hit 90 points in consecutive games should have no trouble getting there again.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Mercury Team Total Under 75.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ION

We go from the worst defense in the WNBA to the best for this game, as the Sun look to shut down Phoenix again. Connecticut leads the league in points allowed at 73.9 on the season, and when they’ve faced the Mercury it’s been a defensive showcase, allowing just 72, 69, and 47 (yes, 47) points. A Phoenix team that’s reliant on the three-ball runs into trouble against the excellent perimeter defense from the Sun, and I think that’s a big factor again here. With Rebecca Allen and Kahleah Copper both having injury issues, the Mercury might also be shorthanded on offense, making me think we’ll see another very low output from them tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +95.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.