Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/14 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) UTSA @ Texas -35.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Legendary UTSA quarterback Frank Harris, who finally left last year after enough time there to earn a doctorate, could walk through the locker room door tonight and it still wouldn’t matter. His departure has left this program in rebuilding mode, and that task will feel taller after Texas takes them out tonight. I’m convinced that the Longhorns are out to make statements this season after their CFP semifinal exit last year, and UTSA will be their next victim. It’s a national TV game where Texas will want to show out, and the spread has moved through the key number of 35, so smart money is expecting a blowout too.

The Texas defense is just too good, unexpectedly so in a way that hasn’t been accounted for in the market yet, and will shut down a weak Roadrunner offense. UTSA just got whipped last week 49-10 by rival Texas State, who showed on Thursday that their defense is nothing special, so Texas should be able to score enough here on accident. There’s obviously concern about the Longhorns being in a letdown spot after last week’s big win in Michigan, but this is such a talent disparity that eventually Texas will run them out. With no lookahead spot to worry about, expect the Longhorns to have enough focus to make another statement here.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) New Mexico/Auburn Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2

This total is being held down by a lot of rain that will be in the area today, otherwise I’d expect this number to be close to 70 or above. That’s what the standard should be any time New Mexico takes the field, and with them in this game I don’t think rain is going to matter. Fortunately there won’t be wind, which combined with rain is the ultimate under recipe, but New Mexico and Auburn should both want to keep this game on the ground anyway.

The absolutely electric Devon Dampier for the Lobos looks to carve up another suspect defense, and he has kept UNM in both their games to some extent. But he can’t make up for one of the worst defenses in FBS, as the Lobos couldn’t even slow down FCS Montana State in their first game, then gave up 61 to an Arizona offense that isn’t spectacular. So an Auburn squad that is out for blood after a home loss last week should keep the pedal down all game, and find next to no resistance. I think this game gets into the 70’s and perhaps beyond, so I’ll take the weather-related discount here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +94.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.