Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/15 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys PK: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

It’s time for the first teaser of the NFL season, and what better way to kick it off than with my Cowboys. They should destroy the Saints here given how good they’ve been at home in recent years, but big spreads in the second week of the season are tricky so I’m just asking them to win. That should be easy against Dennis Allen, as his teams are 5-28 straight up as an underdog of 3 points or more. I get the sense that the value for both of these teams is somewhat inflated from big wins last week, but more so for the Saints since Carolina is just that bad, so I’m confident my ‘Boys get this win.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens -2.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

The Raiders don’t appear to be any good, hampered by a weak and bland offense, along with a very conservative head coach in Antonio Pierce who seems to be out of his honeymoon phase. The Ravens meanwhile are in a spot where they should be out for blood, having suffered that loss by inches in the season opener. They’ve had a long time to rest and get ready for this game, and giving that amount of preparation to John Harbaugh should make things tough on the Raiders as he is 22-11 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2 for his career. The big spread in this game is justifiable, but getting Baltimore under a field goal looks like great value here.

NFL (1 Unit) LA Chargers -5 @ Carolina Panthers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I mentioned above that the Panthers are just that bad, and it will likely show again today. The Chargers are a rough matchup for them here after they got run all over by a New Orleans offense that can’t run the ball at anywhere near the level LA can. Give Jim Harbaugh a vulnerable run defense to exploit, that just lost its best interior lineman Derrick Brown, and he should take advantage all day.

The Chargers looked immeasurably more competent in one game under Harbaugh than they have in years thanks to Brandon Staley. You also need to ask yourself if you think a putrid Panthers offense with Bryce Young will manage more than 24 points, and if not, realize that Justin Herbert is 24-8-1 ATS when the defense allows 24 or fewer. So despite this being an awkward number on the road, they should roll what is likely the worst team in the league.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

If this number is a trap, so be it, I’ll walk right in given what I saw out of Deshaun Watson last week. Granted, the Cowboys have a better defense than the Jaguars, but Jacksonville can also put enormous pressure on a beat-up Browns offensive line. That will keep Watson under the same kind of pressure he faced last week, which is bad news for a quarterback that simply looks broken. Add in that Cleveland defense which last season saw them totally collapse every time they hit the road, and I think the Jags have what it takes to win this very comfortably.

NFL (0.5 Unit) NY Giants @ Washington Commanders -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

There is one reason and one reason only that this spread isn’t above a field goal. That is Brian Daboll being very good at covering numbers in his Giants tenure against Washington, going 4-0 ATS and being an underdog in every meeting. Otherwise you have to look at how bad the Giants are and realize that every team is going to be able to score at will against a bad second level of defense. Daniel Jones should have more success today than he did against the blitz-happy Vikings, but I don’t think it will matter for the home opener of the Jayden Daniels era. Daniels should run and throw all over the Giants here, notching the first win of his career.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Washington Commanders Team Total Over 21.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Like I said, Jayden Daniels should be primed to go off in this game. I also don’t see the Commanders calling off the dogs here if they’re able to press an advantage against a divisional opponent in Daniels’ debut. The Giants couldn’t slow down Sam Darnold last week, so a dynamic rookie like Daniels can put up a big number here.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Indianapolis Colts 1st Half Team Total Over 10.5 (+120; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I think the Packers are in trouble with Malik Willis at the helm, but I also think their defense is exploitable by a team like the Colts. When we saw the Packers lose in Brazil, their defense was very vulnerable to the run game and that was on a terribly slippery field. With Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, the Colts have a rushing attack that I think tears Green Bay up here. They should be able to manage several scoring drives in the first half, and might well be gifted short fields by Willis, so look for them to put up a big number early today.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals/KC Chiefs Over 47.5 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on CBS

Thanks for nothing last week Cincinnati, lighting one of my survivor pool entries on fire, along with those of many other people I’m sure. You would have to think they’re embarrassed by that performance overall, and probably bounce back. I’m counting on a bounce back offensively, especially after it came out that Jamarr Chase was sick with food poisoning last week. But the Bengals are also facing a Chiefs offense that has had lots of extra time to prepare for this one, and the new-look KC attack that has its speed back is going to break out soon. Joe Burrow versus Patrick Mahomes games always seem to deliver, and that should mean a back-and-forth affair featuring plenty of points.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – JK Dobbins Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 257.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 7.5 Receptions (+110)

0.25 Unit – Isaiah Likely Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Alexander Mattison Over 37.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Amon-Ra St Brown Alt Over 7.5 Receptions (+125)

0.5 Unit – Mike Evans Anytime TD (-105)

0.25 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 263.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – Chris Godwin Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jalen McMillan Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jameson Williams Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Brian Thomas Jr Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Brian Thomas Jr Over 3.5 Receptions (+100)

0.25 Unit – Brian Thomas Jr Anytime TD (+225)

0.5 Unit – Deebo Samuel Over 84.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jonathan Taylor Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Anthony Richardson Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Josh Jacobs Over 84.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jayden Daniels Over 194.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Devin Singletary Over 73.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Marvin Harrison Jr Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Cooper Kupp Alt Over 9.5 Receptions (+190)

0.5 Unit – Isaiah Pacheco Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Zach Moss Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Xavier Worthy Over 45.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +95.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.