Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/22 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Houston Texans/Minnesota Vikings Under 53: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

You have to give a ton of credit to Minnesota’s defense under Brian Flores, which has been the biggest key along with Sam Darnold to their 2-0 start. Importantly, the defense is the far healthier side of the ball for the Vikings, and that should be a big factor in keeping this game low-scoring. A banged-up offense is going to struggle against an excellent Houston defense, especially their lockdown corners.

But the Texans are also dealing with some injuries on offense, and if anything can slow down CJ Stroud it will be heavy blitz pressure in a hostile environment. These teams are also the top two defenses in sack rate, so enough of those drive-killers should hold down the scoring today.

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +0.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I don’t feel like laying more than 6 points in the current NFL, so the only way to properly fade Bo Nix here is to get the Bucs as a teaser leg. It’s overkill to get them through zero, but with the way things are going in this league right now, I’m not paying attention to the typical rules or best practices.

One rule I’m sticking to though is going against Bo Nix, who has struggled even in the training wheels version of this offense, not being able to work the ball downfield whatsoever. He’s also really struggling against pressure and now faces a blitz-happy Todd Bowles defense, so I’m just not buying that Denver has any chance to win this game.

Detroit Lions/Arizona Cardinals Over 44.5: 3:25 PM CT on FOX

I’m expecting plenty of points in this game, and think the standard total is worth a look for an over bet, but I’m taking the insurance route here. Totals of 50 or more have not done well in the NFL lately, going 13-2 to under since the start of last season. But this teased total is much different, especially below the key number of 45 points, and these offenses should be trading shots all game long.

Detroit should really be in for an offensive bounce back today, after they went just 1 for 7 in red zone opportunities last week. Going up against arguably the worst defense in the NFL should automatically correct some of those woes, and I’d expect the Lions to be in a foul mood looking to make a statement. The Detroit defense still isn’t up to par though, and this Cardinals offense looks to be the highly explosive unit we expected, so this adjusted total should be no problem in the shootout I’m expecting.

NFL (1 Unit) New Orleans Saints Team Total Over 26.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

The Saints are one of the biggest stories of the NFL season so far, and I think it keeps getting better today. Certainly from an offensive standpoint, as their lucky run of facing bad defenses to start the year continues today. The Eagles are just too slow and might be running an outdated scheme on defense right now, getting gashed in both games on the ground and through the air.

A Saints team that has scored on every possession quarterbacked by Derek Carr can certainly exploit that, especially with the resurgent Alvin Kamara tearing up a bad run defense. I have a suspicion that this will be a shootout, but I’m more confident that the Eagles defense is bad than I am in both teams lighting it up, so I’ll isolate the Saints for a big day here.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Bo Nix Longest Completion Under 31.5 Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Chris Godwin Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Alvin Kamara Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Alvin Kamara Alt Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (+135)

0.75 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 101.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jalen Hurts Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Anytime TD’s (+700)

0.5 Unit – Rashid Shaheed Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jayden Reed Over 33.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Alec Pierce Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jonathan Taylor Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Caleb Williams Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Geno Smith Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Geno Smith Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Geno Smith Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Zach Charbonnet Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Zamir White Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (-110)

0.5 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jordan Mason Over 20.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – Jared Goff Over 261.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Kyler Murray Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – Kyler Murray Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Jameson Williams Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – AmonRa St Brown Alt Over 7.5 Receptions (+140)

0.25 Unit – Trey McBride Over 5.5 Receptions (+100)

0.25 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Pass Completions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Bijan Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)

0.25 Unit – Samaje Perine Alt Over 3.5 Receptions (+170)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +92.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.