Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/23 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Jacksonville Jaguars/Buffalo Bills Under 52.5: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

I’m backing the primetime unders trend here, as games under the lights in the NFL this season have now gone 7-2 to the under including 5 straight. And at this adjusted number I feel even more comfortable given how many games are failing to get into the 50’s this year. With the struggles Jacksonville has seen on offense, putting up just 17 and 13 points against mediocre defenses, I’m not expecting much out of them until they prove themselves. The Bills aren’t a defensive juggernaut, but they are a running juggernaut, and that should keep the clock moving tonight and hold this game below the adjusted total.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills +1.5

We’ve seen 0-2 teams across the league respond with big efforts this week, so I’m not interested in laying the full number with Buffalo tonight, especially with Josh Allen not very trustworthy as a big favorite. Allen might be just 8-17-1 ATS when laying 4 or more points, but the Bills find ways to win those games, and I’m confident they will here. Let’s remember this is a revenge game for the Bills after the Jaguars beat them in London last season, and the McDermott/Allen era in Buffalo has usually seen them deliver in motivated situations.

Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals -0.5: 7:15 PM CT on ABC

This game is my main reason for wanting a 7-point teaser tonight, as it moves the Bengals down to just needing to win and get their season back on track. I tend to believe Cincinnati rolls in this game as Tee Higgins returns to face the league’s worst pass defense, plus it’s Week 3 so now’s the time when they typically shake off the early season cobwebs. But Cincy is in a weird valuation spot tonight as they go from touchdown dogs last week to touchdown favorites here, and the past 22 teams to do that are just 8-12-2 ATS. That big of a number swing is tough in the NFL, but those teams are also 20-2 straight up so I’ll count on the Bengals to right the ship with a win here.

Monday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Josh Allen Under 20.5 Pass Completions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Trevor Lawrence Under 20.5 Pass Completions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Trevor Lawrence Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – James Cook Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Tyler Bass Over 1.5 Made Field Goals (+100)

0.25 Unit – Joe Burrow Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jayden Daniels Over 9.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – Austin Ekeler Over 44.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jamarr Chase Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Austin Ekeler Alt Over 3.5 Receptions (+135)

0.25 Unit – Zach Ertz Alt Over 3.5 Receptions (+135)

0.25 Unit – Jamarr Chase Anytime TD (+110)

0.25 Unit – Tee Higgins Anytime TD (+170)

MLB (0.5 Unit) SF Giants/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

The season series between these teams has averaged 10.2 runs per game, but they either crush the over or stay well under. Tonight I think it’s the former, as two pitchers with very low trust levels take the mound, and the Arizona offense looks to stay red hot.

Eduardo Rodriguez has turned into a liability for the D’backs, especially at home with a 6.05 ERA, and lately overall with a 5.85 ERA over the past 30 days. The Giants are much better against lefties like Rodriguez, so I trust them to be able to contribute here.

But I’m counting on Arizona for the majority of the work to get over this number as they’ve been crushing everything lately, scoring 6.6 runs per game their past 20 games. They’ll face Hayden Birdsong tonight, and while they’re not elite against righties, Birdsong usually has short outings and hands things over to a bad bullpen. With the D’backs owning the league’s best over record and being the highest-scoring home team, I think we see plenty of runs in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +90.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.