Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/25 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Fever/Connecticut Sun First Half Over 84.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

The full-game total of 163.5 is extremely sharp, within a point of what these teams average against each other this season of 164.4 PPG. But I’m seeing more value on the first half total, based both on numbers and on how I expect this game to play out. The regular season series plus Sunday’s Game 1 have seen these teams combine for 88.0 points in first halves, so it’s naturally the higher-scoring half.

Connecticut just tends to erupt against this bad Fever defense, scoring far more than their season average, and that pushes the pace and scoring up drastically. Indiana has the firepower to contribute theirs here, and I think they will, at least until this game slows down later on. It’s an elimination scenario for Caitlin Clark and the Fever, so I see this game tightening up late which could limit scoring, and I want to isolate the first half as a result.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx Team Total Over 85.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

These teams have been pretty consistent in getting into high-scoring games when they meet, mostly driven by Minnesota’s ability to carve up a bad Mercury defense. The Lynx average 87.8 PPG against Phoenix, primarily because of their league-leading three-point shooting having an easy time against the defense that allows the most three’s made per game. I would expect that to continue tonight, especially with the Lynx looking to put Phoenix away in this best-of-3 closeout. Minnesota has been flexing the offense ever since the season picked back up, highlighted by their 102-point eruption in Sunday’s Game 1, so look for them to have plenty more success against this defense that they own.

MLB (0.5 Unit) SF Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

The Diamondbacks have put themselves in a precarious position after messing around for two games against the Giants this week. Arizona only leads Atlanta by half a game in the wild card race, so they’d better get it together tonight and I think they will. Having your ace in Zac Gallen on the mound is a big help, and he has owned San Fran in his career, allowing just a cumulative .217 average and .642 OPS to their bats. And if the D’backs bats are going to wake up it’ll be tonight, as Mason Black and his 6.75 road ERA come to town. Unless we’re witnessing a shocking collapse down the stretch, I see Arizona getting right in this spot with a convincing win.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +89.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.