Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 09/28 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.25 Unit) Fresno State ML @ UNLV (+115; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on FS1

This is simply a play against UNLV’s massive distraction this week of their star QB leaving the program. Matthew Sluka’s NIL dispute got plenty of discussion nationally, putting a big ol’ cloud of distraction right over the Rebels program. It cannot be easy to go from being discussed as the Group of 5 CFP representatives one day, to the flurry of negativity they got the next. It has to be deflating to the rest of the team, which is certainly talented, but will be in a tough spot without their quarterback. This line already smelled fishy before the news broke, and now I’m willing to jump in on a talented Fresno team taking this outright.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Colorado Team Total Over 23.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on FOX

I see this game as a shootout, but instead of the full-game total I’m going after what I think is the most vulnerable number out there. Colorado will likely have to throw quite a bit in this game as the UCF ground attack will go right through them. And the Buffaloes will have success with that against a sub-par Knights pass defense that just got shredded for 402 yards in the air last week. Colorado’s passing game is by far the most explosive and up-tempo that that UCF has seen this season, and in a game where the Buffs should be playing catch-up I think they throw their way past this team total for the 4th time this season.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Texas First Half Team Total Over 28.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 3:15 PM CT on SEC Network

It’s nice for Texas to get a soft warmup game for their introduction to SEC football. Mississippi State has been horrendous this season, getting torched defensively the past 3 games. Toledo and Florida, neither of which have high-level offenses, went into Starksville and put 28 first half points apiece on the Bulldogs in their last 2 games. Now having to face Texas, on the road, with the Longhorns looking to make a big entrance to their new conference, is a massive upgrade. Whether it’s Quinn Ewers returning or Arch Manning progressing, I’m willing to bet Texas can exceed what Miss State has allowed in consecutive weeks, especially at a plus-juice return.

NCAA Football (1.5 Unit) Stanford/Clemson Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

My read on this total is that it’s been held down all week by concerns about the impact of Hurricane Helene making landfall. But the bad weather is over with in Clemson tonight, and the result will be another fireworks show by the Tigers.

It was not pretty in Week 1 when Clemson got embarrassed on the national stage by Georgia, and Dabo has been on the warpath ever since. For consecutive games the Tigers have cleared this number themselves against decent defenses as they make up for that opening loss, and them doing it again here is not outside the realm of possibility.

Stanford could not stop a dynamic passing attack by TCU in their opener, so Cade Klubnik being unleashed and Dabo looking to stomp everyone in his path is a recipe for another massive day from the Clemson offense. But the Cardinal have a solid offense of their own that can at the very least contribute in garbage time, so look to the over here in my favorite play of the week.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Middle Tennessee @ Memphis -14 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPNU

Memphis is going to be in a foul mood tonight after getting embarrassed and taunted by Navy last week, so I see them taking it out on an in-state little brother school. The Tigers had been playing excellent defense until last week’s let-down spot, so I expect a refocused effort on that side of the ball which shouldn’t be difficult against a team scoring the 9th-fewest first half points in the country.

Middle Tennessee also happens to score the 4th-fewest first half points nationally, so I can’t see them keeping pace with an offense looking to make a statement. The Blue Raiders have faced halftime deficits of 28, 21, and 25 points this season, and I see something similar here with the situational spot Memphis is in.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) South Alabama Team Total Over 21.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on SEC Network

There’s reason to wonder how a young South Alabama team will deal with the success of running out a good App State team 48-14 on the road last week. But until LSU proves their defense isn’t a complete sieve, I’m looking for ways to fade the Tigers. They’ll have to contend with an electric freshman quarterback in Gio Lopez, who has the Jaguars offense looking excellent on the ground and in the air.

And if you’re thinking that LSU’s talent and athleticism from the SEC will be too much for South Alabama, just remember this Tigers defense gave up 21 points to Nicholls State 3 weeks ago. South Alabama’s offense is not to be trifled with as they’ve gone nuclear in every game Lopez has been healthy for, so a lackadaisical LSU defense looking forward to a bye week is one they can keep it up against.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +88.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.