Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/04 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Michigan State @ Oregon -23.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on FOX

This spread snuck below the key number of 24, and that has me jumping in. Oregon should be out to make a statement here in a standalone national TV game, especially with the biggest Big10 game of the year on deck against Ohio State. Speaking of the Buckeyes, they just demolished Michigan State by 31 on the road, so the Ducks should be looking to match or exceed that performance.

I think they can, as this offense is finally clicking and the defense is perfectly suited to shutting down the Spartans. The smart game plan for MSU would be running the ball, but eventually they’ll find themselves trailing and forced to let Aidan Chiles chuck it deep again. Chiles is a turnover machine, and will struggle against one of the best secondaries in the country, handing Oregon short fields. With Dan Lanning covering as a home favorite at a 67% clip in his Oregon tenure, look for them to make another statement to their new conference.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Syracuse @ UNLV -6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on FS1

I’m not sure what I’m missing here, because this spread looks very easy for a hot UNLV team to cover. It’s not the backup quarterback effect for the Rebels, as losing Matthew Sluka didn’t matter last week and shouldn’t matter tonight. Hajj-Malik Williams was dynamic in the blowout of a good Fresno State team, and might have an even better matchup this week.

UNLV’s run-heavy scheme is perfect for the running ability of Williams, who shredded a Fresno defense ranked 90th in yards allowed per attempt, and now faces a Syracuse defense ranked 119th in that stat. And the Orange really haven’t been tested yet this year, playing all their games at home so far against a soft schedule. UNLV looks like they’re for real, so a cross-country road game in a distracting environment will be a massive change for Cuse. I don’t think they handle it well enough to stay within a touchdown, and wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rebels make another statement.

Degenerates

WNBA Minnesota Lynx +2.5 @ Connecticut Sun (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2

These two teams are about as evenly matched as it gets, with the 5 meetings this year averaging just a 3.6 point margin. And the two times they played in Connecticut, the difference was one point and two points. This is guaranteed to be another defensive battle, so I’ll naturally lean towards taking the points in that kind of game, but I think the Lynx are in good shape to win this outright.

They showed in Game 2 that they could get right from long range and it allowed them to win by what amounts to a comfortable margin in this rivalry. Plus, we still haven’t seen an efficient scoring night from MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier, and if she gets going like she’s done in the past against the Sun, we could see the Lynx dominate. So I think the Lynx re-take home court in this game, but I’ll take the points in case it’s another nail-biter.

Tiny Nick has gained +84.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.