Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/05 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Pittsburgh/North Carolina Over 63.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on ESPN2

The Pittsburgh offense is back after a bye week, which came after dropping 73 the week before, and now they might be better than ever. The Panthers got great news that dynamic running back Rodney Hammond has been cleared to play, canceling his ineligibility tag for the season. Having Hammond’s talent to balance Eli Holstein lighting up every defense through the air is going to make Pitt a scary team, and they should have plenty of success against Carolina.

The UNC defense responded last week after James Madison torched them, but this is still a very vulnerable unit. That’s especially true against the pass, where they rank 113th in opponent yards per pass attempt. But Pitt relies so heavily on their offense that they simply don’t care much for defense, instead preferring to simply outscore every opponent. Their tendency to allow shootouts to unfold has them 106th in the crucial opponent yards per point stat, even against a soft schedule, so look for UNC to participate fully in another shootout today.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Army -6.5 First Half @ Tulsa (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 11:00 AM CT on ESPNU

Army has been pummeling their schedule of soft opponents, especially early, and they’ll see another easy victim today. The Black Knights have held a halftime lead of at least this much in every game so far, with an average margin of 15.8 points. Their excellent option attack that’s so tough to prepare for has been extremely effective early in games, as they’ve put up touchdowns on the first two drives of all their games.

That should be easy to replicate today against a very weak Tulsa defense, as the Golden Hurricane have faced halftime deficits of 21 and 28 points against their two quality opponents. Tulsa also only managed 3 total points in those two games, and are 111th in first half scoring this season. So it will be difficult for them to move the ball against a disciplined Army defense that’s 2nd nationally in first half points allowed. Army has a legitimate shot at a conference title this season, so look for them to get out to another fast start in this one.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Navy Team Total Over 23.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on CBS

An over play in a service academy game? Yes, because we go from one academy that’s not messing around in Army, to another in Navy that has an equally good chance at the AAC title. The Midshipmen are scoring like crazy, ranking 6th in points per game and 8th in yards per point, so this offense is both effective and efficient. That’s because they’re no longer just a triple-option attack, with quarterback Blake Horvath throwing all over the place. Air Force is just plain bad this season, and have given up 31 points in consecutive games to offenses not on Navy’s level, so look for another big day on the scoreboard for the Midshipmen.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Auburn @ Georgia -22.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

This might be one of the oldest and most storied matchups in all of college football, but there’s only one team playing at a high level, and they happen to be angry. Georgia’s wild night in the game of the year last weekend should have them in a foul mood for this one, and returning home after two straight on the road will be good for them. Auburn meanwhile has lucked into 5 straight home games to start the season, so finally going on the road between the hedges will be a rude awakening for them.

When Kirby Smart is looking to make a statement, it never matters what opponent is in front of him, and the Bulldogs have the talent to run away with this game. Defense will be a priority for the Dawgs after Alabama put 41 on them, and they’ve already completely shut down an excellent Clemson offense this season, so Auburn’s sluggish attack shouldn’t be a problem. But mostly this is just a narrative play for me as Georgia looks to get right and stop their slide in the rankings, so I smell a blowout.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Miami-OH @ Toledo -6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN+

This line does smell a little trappy, but I’m walking into it anyway. I just don’t understand the number as Miami has looked terrible this season, especially on offense where QB Brett Gabbert has regressed and the points have been tough to come by. The Redhawks needed overtime at home against a putrid UMass team just to get their first win last week, otherwise it’s been an abject disaster and won’t get easier in their first conference game.

Toledo is very good in my opinion, as any team that can go into an SEC school’s building and dominate like they did against Mississippi State should be given more credit than they’re getting. The Rockets got too high on themselves for the next week, but have had a bye to regroup after losing at Western Kentucky. They have an excellent QB in Tucker Gleason, but should be able to resurrect the ground game against a Miami defense ranked 118th in yards per rush allowed. This probably won’t be a pretty game, but I have faith in Toledo to pull away at home and win by margin.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Baylor Team Total Under 15.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on FOX

The way my Cyclones are winning this season is a far cry from the exciting days of Brock Purdy slinging it, but still extremely effective. This defense is legit, ranked 4th in points allowed overall and even better in efficiency-based metrics, coming in at 3rd in yards per point allowed. They’ve let one team into the red zone all year, which even with a fairly soft schedule is wild to say 4 games into the season.

Baylor will arguably be the best offense they’ve seen so far, but the Bears already flopped offensively against an elite defense this season, managing 12 points on the road in Utah. This ISU defense is playing at a higher level than even the Utes right now, and with a ball control offense limiting the opportunities for Baylor, I see another defensive showcase in a national TV spot.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Arizona State Team Total Over 26.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN2

There are a couple of factors in this game that tell me Arizona State is headed for a good night on the scoreboard. The biggest is the Kansas defense getting progressively worse the past few weeks, with their last two games seeing the opponent cross the 30-point mark. The Jayhawks also aren’t ready for this kind of offense, as teams have not chosen to run on them very much this season.

That changes tonight with Cam Skattebo who has the 10th-most carries in the country, and I think he exposes the Kansas rush defense. And that defense should wear down quickly in this early evening game on a very hot day in Tempe, so eventually the Sun Devils will be able to get whatever they want on offense. This number is very gettable thanks to a surprisingly low full-game total, so an ASU team that’s had a week to prepare should be in for a big night.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Texas Tech/Arizona Over 64 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on FOX

If we can’t have late-night fireworks in the PAC12 anymore, I’ll settle for them in the Big12. I’m seeing a far different game here than what you’ll see on FOX right before it with Iowa State’s defense in action, as these teams should go up and down the field all night. This Texas Tech offense is scary good with Tahj Brooks on the field, scoring 48.0 PPG in the contests he’s been healthy for.

They should feed him tonight and find plenty of success against an Arizona defense ranked 91st in rushing yards allowed and 95th in yards per attempt. But Tech can’t stop much of anything, particularly through the air as they’re 97th in passing yards allowed per game. Arizona QB Noah Fifita and the most dangerous receiver in the country, Tetairoa McMillan, could have a field day here, especially if they’re playing catch-up. I think that fuels a shootout in the desert as these teams dig up memories of the PAC12 after dark points fests.

MLB (0.75 Unit) KC Royals/NY Yankees First 5 Innings Under 4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:38 PM CT on TBS

This opening game of the ALDS should be a feeling-out period for both teams, especially with quality pitchers taking the mound. With the Kansas City offense completely falling off a cliff down the stretch of the season, they need their pitching to step up in a big way here. I think it can, and Michael Wacha has had a lot of success against the Yankee lineup, allowing just a .241 average and .667 OPS for his career.

The only Yankee hitter who’s had consistent success against him is the injured Anthony Rizzo, so look for a strong start from Wacha today. But that putrid Royals offense is going nowhere against Gerrit Cole, who has a composite .221 average and .559 OPS allowed to KC bats in his career. Cole has also always been elite in the divisional round in his postseason career, so if he shuts the Royals down this should be a very quiet first 5 innings.

MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres ML @ LA Dodgers (+120; Odds via Fanduel): 7:38 PM CT on FS1

With all due respect to the Tigers for their outstanding run the past couple months, the hottest team in baseball that makes any sense to be hot is the Padres. This team has the pitching and hitting to win it all, and I think they start by knocking off their division rival that’s priced based on name recognition.

Game 1 is a perfect place to start that process, as I think they have a distinct pitching advantage with Dylan Cease taking the mound. The Padre righty has solid career numbers against the Dodgers, and held them to a .205 on-base average in two starts against them this season.

With the pitching woes LA is going through, they’re slated to start rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto here, and all the talent he has will run straight into the magnitude of the moment. Yamamoto has also struggled against the Padres, allowing a .381 average and 1.077 OPS to them in two starts. Add in a rough bullpen and the postseason ineptitude of manager Dave Roberts, and I think the Dodgers are in trouble for the opener of this NLCS.

MLB Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Gerrit Cole Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+120)

0.25 Unit – Fernando Tatis Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

0.25 Unit – Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 Runs Allowed (-105)

0.25 Unit – Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+125)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +84.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.