Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/06 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Everyone, and I mean *everyone* is in love with the Commanders today at this short number. Save a few pros who’s entire strategy is to fade the steam, it seems like this is basically the most popular pick of the season. I’m sure nothing could go wrong with that in a year where the public is having its worst season in decades, but I digress.

What’s not to like about Washington here though? The way this offense is humming for 3 straight weeks now? The way Cleveland’s defense has been shredded on the road going back to last season? How awful Deshaun Watson has been this year? The only thing to not like is how easy it seems and how much everyone else likes it, but count me as squarely in that public camp.

NFL (1 Unit) Baltimore Ravens/Cincinnati Bengals Over 48.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Let’s start here with the fact that Cincinnati will have no ability to stop Derrick Henry and the Ravens in the run game. The Bengals are 31st in rush defense EPA/play, along with 27th in overall defensive success rate, so that side of the ball is a major liability for them. Add in some injuries along the defensive line and Baltimore will be able to do what they do best with little resistance.

But the Bengals will respond with what they do best, which is throw the football to their elite receiving corps. This offense is now up to 4th overall in EPA/play, showing what can be done now that their receivers are healthy. Baltimore has shown several times this season that their pass defense is vulnerable, especially to teams playing catch-up, ranked just 23rd in pass EPA/play. On a day with perfect conditions in Cincy, I’m seeing a game script that makes for a lot of points.

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Arizona Cardinals @ SF 49ers -1: 3:05 PM CT on FOX

I’m staring at a spread of a touchdown here and thinking about the Breaking Bad meme of Jesse saying “he can’t keep getting away with this”. Underdogs of 6 or more points are now 14-2-1 ATS and 9-8 straight up this year, which is insane and can’t keep up on that pace. This game is a situation where that trend is going to run headlong into history that works against it, as the 49ers just don’t lose to Arizona with Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan.

San Fran is 3-0 SU and ATS against the Cardinals with Purdy under center, winning by 16, 19, and 25 points. The 49ers are out for blood in this NFC West tilt now that their full complement of receiving weapons is healthy, and with Arizona just 3-13 ATS their past 16 divisional games, I don’t see them having enough to stay in this one.

NY Giants @ Seattle Seahawks -1: 3:25 PM CT on CBS

Queue the Breaking Bad meme again here as the Giants come in catching a touchdown, but I don’t see them leaving Seattle with a win. New York is too banged up at key offensive positions to compete here, with Malik Nabers out and Devin Singletary looking doubtful. That will leave Daniel Jones with next to no weapons against a Seattle defense that’s still very good.

The Seahawks were embarrassed defensively on Monday night, but they were down several starters that will all return today, and they’ve been excellent against bad quarterbacks like Jones. And while the Giants have a significant rest advantage here, that’s a little overblown as teams on short rest laying this kind of number against an opponent with extra rest are actually 27-6-1 SU the past 20 years. I’ll count on that continuing with a Seattle team that is considerably healthier and has demolished bad opponents.

NFL (1 Unit) Arizona Cardinals/SF 49ers 1st Half Over 24.5 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 3:05 PM CT on FOX

I mentioned above that Brock Purdy doesn’t lose to Arizona, and he also very reliably gets into shootouts with them, going 3-0 to the over. But the scoring has been most reliable in the first half of those games, with the 3 meetings seeing first half eruptions of 34, 31, and 34 points. Cardinals first halves this season have averaged 27.0 points, as the offense has been far better early in games. San Fran has not gotten into those kinds of games yet, but this should be much different as they face an awful defense that they’ve torched consistently. With both teams having their passing game weapons healthy today, look for more early fireworks in this matchup.

NFL (1 Unit) Green Bay Packers -3 @ LA Rams (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on CBS

We’ve now seen two games with and two games without Jordan Love, and it’s obvious this offense is elite with him under center. The Packers put up 29 points in both games he has started, and I see more of the same this afternoon. He might be down a couple of weapons, but the skill talent is deep in Green Bay, and it doesn’t take much to torch the Rams defense.

This LA secondary might be the worst in all of football, so look for the Packers to attack through the air early, and then run over them late. The Rams won’t be able to stop either approach, ranked 31st in EPA/play against the pass and 30th against the run. Despite Matthew Stafford’s ability to make something out of nothing, I see this as a game determined by offense, and that has me backing the team with the deeper and more talented group.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Derrick Henry Alt Over 99.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Justice Hill Over 38.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Lamar Jackson Under 29.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jamarr Chase Anytime TD (+115)

0.25 Unit – Derrick Henry Alt Over 1.5 TD’s (+320)

0.5 Unit – De’Andre Swift Over 72.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – DJ Moore Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – DJ Moore Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Xavier Legette Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Chuba Hubbard Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Devon Achane Over 11.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – Brian Thomas Jr Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Brian Thomas Jr Anytime TD (+195)

0.75 Unit – Nico Collins Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Stefon Diggs Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (+145)

0.75 Unit – Jerome Ford Over 67.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jayden Daniels Over 204.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Marvin Harrison Jr Anytime TD (+145)

0.75 Unit – Jauan Jennings Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+210)

0.5 Unit – Kyler Murray Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Deebo Samuel Over 74.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.6 Unit – Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120)

0.5 Unit – Geno Smith Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kenneth Walker Over 86.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – DK Metcalf Over 5.5 Receptions (+120)

1 Unit – Jayden Reed Over 77.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dontayvion Wicks Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Dontayvion Wicks Anytime TD (+140)

0.75 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 105.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tutu Atwell Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 22.5 Pass Completions (-110)

0.5 Unit – George Pickens Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – George Pickens Over 4.5 Receptions (+115)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +80.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.