Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/08 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Connecticut Sun @ Minnesota Lynx -1.5 First Half (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN2

The Lynx have roared to excellent starts the past two games, and we wouldn’t be here if not for a total collapse in the second half on Sunday. This team has so much talent, discipline, and outstanding coaching that I see them atoning for that collapse with another strong start here. Especially in front of what should be a crazy Target Center crowd, and led by Napheesa Collier who has come alive the past two games. I think the Lynx take this game and move on, but I’m not willing to lay the full game spread of 4.5 in an elimination spot, so this is a much more attractive number in my opinion.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers @ San Diego Padres -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:08 PM CT on FS1

I happen to think this is a pretty big pitching mismatch, but it’s certainly not priced that way. The brand-name Dodgers and their former ace are not seen in the negative light that I see them today, and I think the Padres jump out early. I say former ace because Walker Buehler just doesn’t have it anymore after suffering a series of injuries. He’s simply not trustworthy on the road with a 6.53 ERA, and a red hot Padres offense should get to him right away.

From there I see Michael King continuing to dominate, as he’s been arguably the best pitcher for San Diego lately. King has held LA to a .195 on-base average this season, already has a dominant postseason start under his belt, and should be near untouchable early tonight. That should allow the Padres to get off to a fast start in this game, so I see them holding a lead after five tonight.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Walker Buehler Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+105)

0.25 Unit – Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)

0.25 Unit – Fernando Tatis Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)

Degenerates

NCAA Football Liberty First Half Team Total Under 18.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Liberty might be 4-0 this season, but it’s required a good amount of luck and some big comebacks. The Flames have been prone to slow starts this season, ranking 99th in first half scoring at just 10.0 points per game. They’re 4-0 under this first half total on the season despite playing an incredibly soft schedule, so this team is a far cry from what we’re used to in Lynchburg. With FIU coming to town they aren’t exactly facing a great defense, but something just isn’t right with this Flames offense and I’ll be fading them early here.

Tiny Nick has gained +80.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.