Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/12 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) South Carolina/Alabama Over 50.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on ABC

If I know anything about college football in the south, Alabama fans are raging over them losing a shocker to Vanderbilt last week. The honeymoon is officially over for Kalen DeBoer after that loss, and he’d better do something big to put it in the rearview. That has me believing we’ll see an A+ offensive game from the Tide as they look to take out their personal frustrations and those of the fanbase, which is certainly possible against a South Carolina team that’s been inconsistent defensively.

The Gamecocks can produce offensively though behind LaNorris Sellers, who has shown flashes of explosiveness in the passing game, and I’m having big doubts about the Alabama secondary after their past 6 quarters of football. But if Alabama gets anywhere close to their 44.6 PPG average, then a total like this is extremely doable in today’s SEC.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) UAB @ Army -14.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on CBSSN

The big critique of Army being undefeated so far is their soft schedule, which is valid, but also is not going to change today. They’ll have a significant advantage over a poor UAB team that has been mauled defensively in their past 4 games, giving up 45.3 PPG and it’s getting progressively worse. The past two games have seen them get run all over by elite running teams, including Navy who held an 18-point lead at half.

The Blazers simply can’t stop the run, ranking 129th in rushing yards allowed per game and 121st on a per-carry basis. Army should cut right through that defense early and often, as the Black Knights have put up touchdowns on their first two possessions in every game this season. I think that propels them to plenty of early points, and a defense that’s 3rd nationally in first half scoring allowed will help get them a big halftime lead.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Purdue @ Illinois -22.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on FS1

Things are really bad in Purdue’s world right now, and I think they get worse today. The Boilermakers are ready for basketball season as they’ve been throttled the past 4 games, and now face the best team they’ve seen since Notre Dame beat them 66-7 a month ago. Purdue will have no answer for Illinois QB Luke Altmeyer who has been extremely efficient and productive this season. And the Boilers firing offensive coordinator Graham Harrell was never the solution, and they’ll continue to struggle to score against an elite defense here.

The Illini are looking for a bounce back after a bad game at Penn State, and have had a bye week to prepare for this game that’s a revenge spot for coach Brett Bielema. The fact that this spread continues to climb through key numbers in a subpar Big10 matchup shows just how bad things are for Purdue’s program, so I’m laying the big number here.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) California/Pittsburgh Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

This is a really difficult spot for California to find themselves in, and I think it results in Pitt lighting them up. The Golden Bears expended a ton of energy in Saturday’s massively hyped game against Miami, only to have it arguably stolen from them. Now they have to travel across the country, a factor that we’ve seen put a big strain on other teams in coast-to-coast conferences, and face a red hot Panthers squad that is locked in offensively.

Pittsburgh has been elite on the offensive side of the ball, boasting one of the most efficient and aggressive passing games in the country. We just saw last week what a real passing offense will do to Cal as they had benefitted from an easy schedule to that point, so Pitt should be able to score at will against an exposed and exhausted defense. But the Golden Bears showed their offensive potential as well behind quarterback Fernando Mendoza, and this offense is capable of explosive plays. I expected to see this total in the 60’s so I’m jumping on the over at a reduced number here.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Pittsburgh -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Again, it’s just a brutal situational and travel spot for the Bears here. Pittsburgh has answered every test this season, while Cal’s 3-0 start and road win over Auburn are starting to look less impressive with the benefit of hindsight. If the Panthers have one of their signature big days offensively, they should pull away late against a worn out and deflated opponent.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) San Jose St/Colorado St Over 55.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on truTV

I’m really surprised to see this total below the key number of 56, and that’s the main reason for this play. In a pick-em game with the total right on a multiple of 7, models are expecting this game to be one where the teams trade touchdowns all game. I definitely see that potential here between two defenses that have struggled all season, and two offenses with plenty of explosive potential.

Colorado State has simply not lived up to expectations on offense, with their excellent QB-WR duo having a rough time so far. But Braden Fowler-Nicolosi and Tory Horton finally broke through last week, and should carry that momentum into today against a SJSU defense that’s been torched the past two games. But the Spartans and excellent QB Emmett Brown can put up points with anyone in this league, especially a Rams defense allowing 30.6 PPG against a suspect schedule. Look for both teams to air it out here for a big day on the scoreboard.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Arizona @ BYU -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on FOX

This line is screaming trap, but I just have to back BYU anyway. I’m very much out on Arizona, whose offense is horribly one-dimensional and whose defense is really suffering from the transfer losses it had in the offseason. That has seen them not live up to expectations this season, which included them initially being favored in this game, so it’s very possible the market is just having a tough time adapting to that reality.

I’m not quite sure how BYU is this good either, but they keep passing tests like last week for their first Big12 road game, and the momentum is definitely real. This is a tough road trip for Arizona, going back up to Utah for the second time in three weeks, and it tends to get wild in Provo when the Cougars are good. So with a big homefield advantage and a lot of mojo on their side, I’m laying the short price with BYU here.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Washington St/Fresno St Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

There are some teams where it’s an automatic bet on the over when they face a competent offense, and Washington State is one of those teams. The Cougars have been lit up by good offenses in their past two games, and I don’t think a week off has solved their problems on that side of the ball. I will never be able to unsee them letting Portland State score 30 in the season opener, so a good Fresno offense looking for a bounceback should have no trouble. But Wazzu is also appointment viewing to see QB John Mateer in action, and his elite dual-threat ability will strain a Bulldogs defense that was lit up by a mobile QB in their last game. I think this is a fun one between two great offenses who’ve had time to prepare, and should fly over this total.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Arkansas St/Texas St Under 66 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I don’t understand this total being so high at all, as these teams are headed for an inefficient day on offense. That should especially be the case with Arkansas State, who loves to throw the football but can’t do it well as Jaylen Raynor has been inaccurate and mistake-prone this season. They’re also going up against a team that is 14th nationally in opponent completion percentage, so the Texas State defense should play better than it has for most of the season. In a game between two teams that are a combined 9-1 under this total on the year, I’m just not seeing where this many points come from.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Ole Miss @ LSU +3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ABC

It’s a night game in Death Valley, where a Brian Kelly squad is off the bye, and the home team is catching points? I mean, that’s really all I need to know in order to back the underdog Tigers here, as the spot sets up pretty well for them. LSU has looked better and better every week since their loss in the opener, and now have had an extra week to prepare for an Ole Miss team that has to be worn out.

The Rebels are playing their 7th straight game and 2nd straight SEC road game, which I’ve noticed taking a toll on their offense that has slowed down considerably against SEC competition. Without that talented unit firing on all cylinders, a night game in Baton Rouge is going to be very difficult, and I would expect LSU’s porous defense to have fixed some things during the bye week. As SVP would say, this is a general principle game for backing the Tigers, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this outright.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Ohio St/Oregon Under 54.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on NBC

On a day of incredible games this one is the marquee matchup, but I don’t see it producing fireworks. This should be a tight, hard-fought game between two teams with elite defenses. Ohio State’s defense is arguably the best in the country, certainly the deepest, and I think they can slow down an Oregon offense that has never truly clicked this season.

But the Ducks might have the best secondary in the country, which will allow them to focus on the three-headed monster that is the Ohio State run game. The Buckeyes are limited offensively with Will Howard at quarterback, and this cross-country trip to an insane environment is the first true test as an offense. I think that forces them to keep the ball on the ground, and thus keeps the clock running, which helps hold this game under the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +83.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.