Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/21 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via DraftKings)

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Bucs +10.5: 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

I have to believe that the Ravens are likely to win this game, as Lamar Jackson is an insane 22-1 straight up against the NFC in his career. But by a large margin is a different story, since Jackson is only 11-11-1 ATS in those out-of-conference games, plus just 8-18 ATS when favored by more than a field goal. Count me as believing this Tampa offense is actually really good, and their ability to throw against just about anyone keeps the back door open on big numbers like this. With an unquantifiable boost from the home crowd after the hurricane carnage, look for the Bucs to hang in this one.

Baltimore Ravens/Tampa Bay Bucs Over 42.5

Speaking of hurricanes, the forecast is looking positive for this game so I’m not concerned about weather conditions holding down scoring. That should allow both offenses to operate efficiently, and produce another over for these teams. The Ravens have the best over record in the league, and these teams are 1st and 3rd for highest plus/minus to the total this season. While Tampa’s defense has gotten healthier, they’re still weak against the run which isn’t what you want when facing Baltimore. But as I mentioned the Bucs can throw on anyone, particularly a questionable secondary, so I think this adjusted total is very reachable.

LA Chargers/Arizona Cardinals Under 51.5: 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

On the other end of the over/under spectrum from the first MNF game sits the Chargers, who are just 1-4 to the over this season with the second-lowest plus/minus to the total. That’s what you get with a defense ranked 1st in overall EPA/play and 2nd in success rate, while the offense is just 28th in success rate. And that offense is missing several key weapons tonight, so LA is going to have to keep it on the ground here. Arizona’s defense is actually decent against the run, so I see offensive struggles here for both teams, and don’t think we’ll see the necessary shootout to get into the 50’s.

MNF Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (-110)

0.25 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 19.5 Completions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Justice Hill Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Zay Flowers Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Mike Evans Anytime TD (+120)

0.25 Unit – Isaiah Likely Anytime TD (+275)

0.25 Unit – James Conner Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – JK Dobbins Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Michael Wilson Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

NFL 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+180; Odds via DraftKings)

Baltimore Ravens -185 @ Tampa Bay Bucs: 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Like I said above, Lamar Jackson doesn’t lose to NFC teams. It’s something about not being able to prepare for his mobility since it’s so unique, and not getting a chance to see it very regularly. Baltimore is the highest power-rated team in the league by most books and sharp models, and they’re making up for that 0-2 start every week. Plus, road favorites are on absolute fire right now going 15-1 straight up the past 3 weeks, so I’ll back another here as a hedge against the teaser and look to double dip.

LA Chargers -120 @ Arizona Cardinals: 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Ditto the Chargers for that road favorites trend here. The NFL put both Harbaugh brothers on a Monday Night doubleheader, you really think they want either one to lose? Despite their injuries, the Chargers are off a bye and prepared for this bad Cardinals team, who is off two straight tough road games. I’ll take Jim Harbaugh with time to prepare over almost anyone, especially in this Harbaugh doubleheader situation.

Tiny Nick has gained +79.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.