Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/29 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Louisiana/Texas St Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Both of these teams have had their fair share of shootouts this season, and I think we’ll see another tonight. There are two excellent offenses squaring off here, the best that both defenses have seen in conference play, and I don’t think they’ll hold up. That’s particularly the case for Louisiana, who has decent defensive numbers against the pass, but has never seen anything like Jordan McCloud and this Bobcats offense in Sun Belt play.

If they focus their effort on stopping him, then a run defense that ranks near the bottom of the country will get gashed again. But the Ragin’ Cajuns have an excellent passing game themselves, ranked 4th in passing success rate, and are known for big plays and putting together quality drives. With Texas State’s issues in coverage, there should be plenty of chunk plays that help fuel a shootout to push this game over the total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/Golden State Warriors Under 217.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

This total has come down quite a bit with all the injury issues facing both teams, but I don’t think it’s low enough. Without Steph Curry, who will be out a few more games with an ankle injury, the Warriors offense becomes a little lost. Add in that Andrew Wiggins might also miss this game, and Golden State should really struggle against a team that can defend like the Pelicans.

But New Orleans has plenty of problems themselves, notably Dejounte Murray being on the shelf for a month, and the Pels have only scored 105 and 103 points in the games without him. The Warriors can still defend at a high level, so look for them to slow things down tonight and keep this game under the total.

Degenerates

NBA Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves -5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

Part of me feels like I’m too close to this game to see it objectively. But another part of me thinks this is the perfect spot for the Wolves to exact some revenge on Dallas for the sad way that the Western Conference Finals played out this spring. The Wolves must have had this game circled for a long time, and I think they can take advantage of a Mavericks team coming into Target Center on a back-to-back.

Dallas is not what they were last season, especially on defense with the loss of Derrick Jones, plus there’s no KAT on the Wolves to shoot them out of the game (sorry, still not over it). This number has also been climbing which is a little surprising, so I think it’s worth expecting Minnesota to have a statement game in this revenge spot.

Tiny Nick has gained +83.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.