Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/07 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Cincinnati Bengals +12.5 @ Baltimore Ravens: 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

It’s been a rollercoaster couple of weeks for the Ravens, with some runaway victories sandwiched around the stunning loss to Cleveland. In making up for that loss with a blowout against the Broncos last week, I’d expect this to be a bit of a letdown spot for them. An AFC North game should be a tight one by definition, so I’m tempted to simply take the points with Cincinnati here as they’ve played nothing but close ones against the Ravens for years. But moving this line through several key numbers to this level gives me a lot of comfort, and I think we see another tight one.

Cincinnati Bengals/Baltimore Ravens Over 46.5

This adjusted total is much more palatable than the true number, especially since totals north of 50 are typically tough to clear. But there’s been no push towards the under in the market for this game, as everyone expects another high-scoring affair for these teams. These are both top-5 teams for best record to the over and highest plus/minus to the total on the year, and their shootout from a few weeks ago also looms large. I don’t think there will be any stopping the Ravens offense, especially not with Diontae Johnson fully integrated now, and the Bengals playing catch-up should create another shootout tonight.

Thursday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Joe Burrow Over 271.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Joe Burrow Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Joe Burrow Over 24.5 Pass Completions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 90.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Mike Gesicki Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Mike Gesicki Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

0.25 Unit – Chase Brown Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Mark Andrews Anytime TD (+180)

NBA (0.75 Unit) Naz Reid Over 19.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on NBATV

Naz has been solidly productive to start the season, scoring in double figures every game. His rebounding goes up and down, but he’s always good for a couple of assists and that scoring floor makes this total very reachable. After a breakout game on Monday, I think he stays hot against another poor defense in Chicago. The Bulls are also a smaller team with rebounding issues, so Reid should be able to clean the glass effectively tonight as well. With an average of 23.7 on this prop for the year, look for Naz to be a factor again tonight against a bad opponent.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/San Antonio Spurs Under 218 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on KATU

This is a matchup of two very bad offenses, and I think it goes predictably. The Spurs are dead last in scoring this season, with Portland checking in at 25th in the league, so these are not effective offenses. They’re not efficient either, as San Antonio ranks 23rd and Porland 28th in offensive efficiency, so it’s usually a brick fest when either takes the court. They have much better defenses though, both on a per-game and per-possession basis, so that should make it easy to keep this lower scoring. San Antonio should dictate tempo at home, and them being 27th in pace should make this a slow, low-scoring game.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Southern/Iowa Over 157.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on BIG10+

You can tell a lot about how this game will go from how their first games went this week. Southern looks like their defense is going to continue to struggle as they let an average South Dakota team shoot over 50% and put 93 points on them. That’s bad news against Iowa, who started relatively slowly in their opener but is always looking to run up the score at home in non-conference games. It’s only a matter of time before the Hawkeyes get rolling, and I think it starts here so triple digits out of them is not a stretch at all. A big key for me is seeing smart money ignore the metrics projections of mid-150’s for this game and continue to hammer the over, so I’ll follow that here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +73.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.