Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/08 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Rice/Memphis Under 51.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Rice is a strange team, owning an awful offense but excellent defense, and I think it creates another low-scoring game tonight. The Owls really can’t do much with the ball, ranking 91st in rush success and 121st in pass success, so it’s no wonder they’re 125th in scoring. They’re also going up against an excellent and angry Memphis defense looking to bounce back from an ugly performance last weekend.

But Rice will make this game ugly through its defense that’s ranked top-30 in just about every metric, and are especially good at tackling and coverage. Memphis typically plays a methodical pace, and will probably focus more on getting the defense back on track here, so I don’t see them trying or succeeding at running up the score. Rice’s games against D1 opponents are 7-1 under this total on the season, so look for another here.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) New Mexico/San Diego St Over 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on FS1

This sky-high total is very reachable with these teams taking the field, as a fast pace and complete lack of defense should be the story here. If not for a couple other abject disaster teams out there, New Mexico would have a legitimate claim as the worst defense in the country. The Lobos are 130th in rush success allowed, 133rd in pass success allowed, and can’t tackle or cover, so it’s no mystery why they allow the 4th-most points in the country.

Even a pretty pedestrian offense from SDSU can have success against that level of defense, especially if the Aztecs keep it on the ground with Marquez Cooper. But New Mexico is sneaky good on offense, since they have to be to paper over their defensive woes, so they’ll torch an Aztecs defense that definitely won’t stop their ground game. Both teams also play at a top-25 tempo and have terrible special teams whose blunders will help create extra scoring chances, and they’ll cash enough of them in to clear this big number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Purdue First Half Team Total Over 41.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on BIG10+

Sportsbooks keep making the same mistake with Purdue’s team total splits in non-conference home games, and I’m going to keep attacking the error. Once again we see the Boilermakers with a first half team total less than 50% of their full-game number, and that’s just not how they play in these games. All of last season they scored more first half points than second half, and it’s much more pronounced in the non-conference slate.

Look no further than Monday night when the Boilers dropped 49 before halftime and 41 after, which fits their strategy of running it up early and coasting late. They should be able to do just that against Northern Kentucky today, who will struggle with Purdue’s size. They couldn’t handle Florida State’s size in their opener, giving up 43 first half points to a much lesser offense than they’ll see here. Unless and until books start shading these Purdue totals correctly, this will be an automatic play for me.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Morehead St @ Cincinnati -27.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Metrics sites have this as far too big of a number for Cincinnati to be laying, but I just don’t agree with them here. The analytical gurus often can’t quantify the blowout factor in these early season non-conference games, especially when one of the teams is so much better than the other. That’s what Cincinnati is, ranked 15th in KenPom compared to 288th for Morehead State, and they’ve already shown their ability and willingness to run out a bad opponent.

The Bearcats doubled up Pine Bluff in the opener, running away by 55 points, and even though Morehead should be a better team, they haven’t proven it. The Eagles were blown out by 48 points in Louisville against a team that’s been awful for years, so a much better Cincy team should do whatever they want here. Morehead is going through a coaching change this year and I just don’t think they’re ready to keep it close against high-major talent like this, so I’m rolling with smart money that has gone against the metrics projections.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.