Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/09 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Iowa State Team Total Over 26.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on FS1

I have bad memories of my Cyclones losing to Kansas last season when I went to the homecoming game, but a new year has made for very different versions of these teams. I don’t care if they flopped last week against Texas Tech, this offense for ISU is elite and should have a field day here.

The Kansas defense is one of the softest I’ve watched all season for a power conference team, and should get carved up by an excellent passing game. With the Clones in both a revenge and bounce back spot, I don’t see them taking their foot off the gas so expect at least four end zone visits for them today.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Army/North Texas Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN2

It only took 8 games, but Army has finally found an opponent who can take advantage of their house of cards defense. The Black Knights miraculously rank 9th in passing yards per attempt, but haven’t faced a single competent passing game until today. So that will change in a hurry against Chandler Morris and this North Texas offense that throws it more frequently than all but 5 teams in the country, and leads the country in passing yards per game.

I think the Mean Green continue that success here against an overinflated defense, but their own defense can’t stop anything. UNT ranks 117th in opponent yards per point, so a highly efficient offense like Army’s will cut right through them. These teams should go up and down the field all day trading scores, and I see this game getting into the 70s or beyond.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Michigan @ Indiana -14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBS

The only minor concern here is how Indiana reacts to their positioning in the first CFP rankings released this week, but I don’t see it as any kind of letdown situation. This team is laser focused under Curt Cignetti, passing every test this season and being an absolute wagon in the process. Going 8-1 ATS this season is ridiculous, and so is managing a plus-17.2 average margin against the number in the process.

The balanced offense is firing on all cylinders, and the defense is now playing lights out. That should be a winning formula against Michigan, who despite having a strong defense just can’t keep up on the scoreboard. The Wolverines are the lowest-scoring team with a winning record in the country, showing that their wins have a good deal of fraudulence in them, and I think they get run over by this Hoosier freight train today.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Mississippi State Team Total Under 18.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

It gets overshadowed by the Nico Iamaleava hype train and some massive numbers put up to start the season, but this Tennessee defense is elite. The Volunteers have allowed the 5th-fewest points this season, along with the 6th-fewest yards per point, so they’re both stingy and efficient. In the best conference in the country, Tennessee is allowing just 17.2 PPG and now they face the worst team in the league for a night game in Neyland Stadium.

This will be an extremely difficult situation for Mississippi State freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren to navigate, and the improvement he’s brought to the Bulldog offense is going to run into reality here. If the Vols can hold Alabama’s offense under this total, they can do it to a much lesser opponent, so I see Miss State struggling all game long to get anything going.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.