Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/01 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Leg 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Pittsburgh Steelers/Cincinnati Bengals Over 39.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Bye week to figure things out or not, this Bengals defense cannot stop much of anything, particularly through the air. They are a constant liability for a Cincy team that is now 8-3 to the over this season with a plus-7.5 point average margin to the total that’s second-best in the league. The Steelers have shown remarkable competency in the passing game and overall on offense with Russell Wilson at quarterback, and I don’t see the wheels suddenly falling off against a bad defense. With excellent conditions in Cincinnati today, look for this game to get over the adjusted total.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Carolina Panthers Over 39.5: 3:05 PM CT on FOX

The Bucs offense still rolling, and the re-addition of Mike Evans has them in a place where they should score at will against maybe the worst defense in the league. The Panthers rank 30th or worse in just about every key defensive metric you can name, which is why their games are 8-3 to the over this season. The Bucs are also flying over totals, with a 7-4 record to the over and the league’s highest plus/minus to the total. The total for this game is high for a reason, and turning it into an adjusted number is good value in my opinion.

Philadelphia Eagles/Baltimore Ravens Over 44: 3:25 PM CT on CBS

I have a feeling this game goes wild and cruises over the standard total today, but I’m more comfortable knocking a touchdown off that number since totals in the 50’s have been hard to reach. The Eagles defense appears to mostly be for real, but against high level offensive teams it has shown some cracks. That’s what they face today with a Ravens offense that is the NFL’s best for EPA per play and second-best in Success Rate. But I don’t think the Ravens will be able to stop a Philly offense that should be fully healthy today and can carve up a pass defense that’s 27th in EPA per play. So with excellent offensive talent all over the field, I see this game going well over the adjusted total.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Seattle Seahawks -1 @ New York Jets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me that the Jets would be in essentially a pick-em lined game here. They don’t appear capable of beating anyone, so to line them as a coin flip to do so against a quality opponent is strange. The Jets have been arguably the league’s worst team since firing Robert Saleh, with the defense absolutely falling off a cliff. The Seahawks come into this game with difficult travel, I’ll admit that, but they’re also fighting for the division title while the Jets are debating whether to shut Aaron Rodgers down for the season. It’s simply a case of two teams on opposite trajectories, and I’ll back the positive trajectory here.

NFL (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Buccaneers First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on FOX

Above I mentioned why I like the full-game over for this one, but I’m going to zero in on this angle once again. Like I said last week and many times before, this Carolina defense cannot stop anything early in games. A motivated Chiefs team put 20 on them before halftime last game, and a Bucs team motivated by a division title race should have similar success. There’s just no arguing with Carolina’s league-worst first half defense that’s allowing 18.9 points, so expect Baker and company to have a field day early on.

Bonus NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit – Gus Edwards Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – George Pickens Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tee Higgins Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Marquez Valdez-Scantling Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – AJ Brown Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +76.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.