Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/02 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos -2.5 Second Half (-120; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Depending on where you live or what apps you have, this might not be available to you pregame, and for that I’m sorry because it’s a great angle. If nothing else, look for something in this range in the live market at halftime, because I think after half is when Denver really pulls away from the Browns tonight. The Broncos lead the NFL in second half points allowed this season at 6.4 per game, a number which drops to just 4.2 in home games.

Cleveland meanwhile is 29th in second half scoring on the road this year at 7.0 points per game, and even the switch to Jameis Winston only got them 8 second half points in his only road start at New Orleans. This Denver defense is nasty, especially at home, and I think they continue to shut the Browns down tonight. With Cleveland still experiencing those road defensive woes, look for the Broncos to pull away late in this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Yale/Rhode Island Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The metrics sites have this game projected to approach 160 points, and if we get a typical Rhode Island game I would definitely agree. The Rams are running like crazy in Archie Miller’s third season, ranked 34th in adjusted tempo, and have an excellent offense that benefits from the fast pace. Rhode Island is a top-10 squad in effective field goal percentage, and top-25 in both two-point and three-point shooting.

They should have no trouble scoring like crazy on a Yale team that has not shown great defense this season, ranked just 218th in adjusted defensive efficiency and really struggle to guard the perimeter. But the Bulldogs have an excellent offense of their own, ranked 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency and can shoot it from deep. They also tend to be a pace taker, allowing their opponent to determine tempo, so this should be a fast-paced game with two excellent offenses getting plenty of opportunity.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.