Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/03 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers Team Total Over 125.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT2

This game just screams track meet between two teams with nothing to play for. This being an NBA Cup game, and both the Cavaliers and Wizards eliminated from the knockout round, I don’t see either of them caring much about defense. That’s Washington’s default though, as the Wizards enter this game 29th in points allowed and 30th in defensive efficiency. So putting them up against the league’s highest-scoring, best-shooting, most efficient offensive team should see Cleveland run wild. The Cavs already put 136 points on Washington earlier this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised by something similar tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Houston Rockets +1.5 @ Sacramento Kings (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

This is another NBA Cup game that unfortunately doesn’t mean anything (shoutout to the league for giving us these bangers), but where I see value on the better team. The Rockets come into this game on fire, going 10-2 both straight up and ATS their past 12 games, while the Kings have been struggling despite having their stars in the lineup.

The Rockets are also fully healthy, and they’re the better defensive and rebounding team, two fairly foreign concepts for Sacramento. The bottom line is Houston has been the best ATS team so far this season, going 15-6 including 5-1 as an underdog with 4 straight up wins. I don’t think the market appreciates how they’re doing it with high level defense, and I think that carries them tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) San Diego Team Total Under 63.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Arizona State laying 20 points tonight is a serious swing in the valuation for a team that has been an underdog for 5 of its 8 games this season. So I’m not in a hurry to lay that big of a number, although I understand the size of it given how bad San Diego has been so far. What I think we see tonight though is a change in style for the Sun Devils, who have been in a lot of track meets with excellent offenses, which changes here.

While USD might play fast, they can’t score at all, ranked 350th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Toreros have no outside shooting, and they’ll be trying to attack an interior defense that is the strength of ASU, so I don’t see them having much success. The only other opponent with an offensive efficiency rank outside the top 200 that ASU has faced this season was Idaho State, and the Devils held them to 47 points, so look for the defense to shine again tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+100; Odds via Caesars)

Wake Forest @ Texas A&M -400: 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This game in the SEC/ACC Challenge is one I think is actually fairly lopsided, both from a team standpoint and a conference standpoint. The ACC has fallen behind the SEC in basketball, which is a conversation for another time, but should prove itself out in this game. Texas A&M has been outstanding at home this season, and their dynamic backcourt gives them a big advantage over plenty of teams including Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons have not fared well on the road this year, and the heroics of Hunter Sallis will not be enough to keep them in this game. Wake just can’t score enough, and their reliance on two-point shooting runs up against one of the best interior defenses in the country. I’m not loving laying nearly double digits with the Aggies though, so I’ll just ask them to win and tie it to this next leg.

Michigan @ Wisconsin -165: 8:00 PM CT on Peacock

The Wolverines are a sneaky-good team, but they’re rated a little too highly on the metrics sites in my opinion, which is causing this line to be tighter than it should. Michigan’s schedule has been sneaky-soft, so this one-loss team has not been tested at near the level Wisconsin has. The Wolverines haven’t even faced an opponent that’s top-60 in KenPom, while the Badgers already have two wins over top-30 opponents.

Important for this matchup is the shock to Michigan’s system that facing a truly good offense will cause, as they’ve built up some inflated defensive metrics against soft competition. The Badgers are the real deal offensively this season, ranked 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency with excellent scorers at every position. They also protect the Kohl Center extremely well historically, and a Michigan team that hasn’t traveled well should drop its Big10 opener here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.