Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/04 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

I just can’t get away from what I’m seeing as a discounted number here. Boston hasn’t been as prolific in first halves this season, only ranking third in the NBA with 61.5 points on average, but I think this is a good matchup for them. With their insane three-point volume that sees them attempt over 6 more three’s per game than anyone else, they should have success against a Detroit defense that’s 28th in opponent three-point percentage.

It will be harder to score at high levels if Jayson Tatum misses this game, but the rest of their shooters are available tonight. Plus, they dropped 73 before halftime of the first meeting with the Pistons, so I’ll take a shot at the over on a number that’s usually a few points higher than this.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) DePaul/Texas Tech First Half Over 70.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:15 PM CT on ESPNU

Both of these teams are about to run face first into some reality, and I think that means we see a lot of points. Both DePaul and Texas Tech have excellent defensive metrics, but neither team has played anybody with a strong offense. The Red Raiders are facing their first opponent ranked inside the top 100 at KenPom, while the Blue Demons haven’t played anyone inside the top 225.

It’s easy to build up some phony defensive numbers against that kind of schedule, and two excellent offenses should thrive early in this game. Tech has one of the best offenses in the country led by an elite backcourt, ranking 18th in adjusted efficiency and 6th in effective field goal rate. DePaul meanwhile completely rebuilt their roster in Chris Holtmann’s first season, and he brought in a ton of shooters which is paying off.

The Blue Demons rank 2nd nationally in effective field goal rate, plus 10th in three-point percentage and they take a ton of them. Tech has issues guarding the three-point line, so plenty of those will go down tonight. DePaul is 14th in the country for first half scoring while Tech is 9th, so I’m expecting plenty of early points to get over a number I see as significantly mispriced.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Auburn +2.5 @ Duke (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:15 PM CT on ESPN

The quality of this game should match the hype it’s getting, and I think that causes it to go right down to the wire. I’ll take points in that scenario, especially with what is easily the best team in the country right now. It’s pretty simple in my book: Auburn has been tested much more severely than Duke so far, and the Tigers have risen to every single challenge. As part of their 7-0 record, Auburn has already beaten 3 teams ranked in the top 20 at KenPom, including running the gauntlet of excellence in Maui last week.

The exact opposite can be said of Duke, who stepped up in class twice this season with games against Kansas and Kentucky, both of which turned into narrow losses. While Cooper Flagg gets all the headlines, he’s only one player on a team that hasn’t quite figured out how to play around him. Going up against a deep and experienced Auburn team with the best offense in the country is another big challenge, and until the Blue Devils start meeting those challenges, I’ll look to go against them.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.