Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/06 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

UNLV +10.5 @ Boise State: 7:00 PM CT on FOX

I think UNLV is a live dog in this game, and getting them with a cushion of double-digit points looks like a steal to me. The Rebels are one of the few teams to ever keep Ashton Jeanty relatively in check, as the Heisman hopeful was held to his worst game of the season in their meeting a few weeks ago. UNLV presents a tough matchup for the way Boise’s offense is run through Jeanty because they’re very competent against outside zone and they don’t miss tackles.

Boise’s defense is kind of the opposite, especially in the tackling department as they rank 132nd in PFF’s tackling grade. The Broncos are susceptible to the big play, so UNLV’s offense that has dynamic playmakers at every position should take advantage. It’s suspicious that in a rematch where Boise now has home field, the spread is exactly the same as when they met in Vegas. So in a rematch where a CFP berth is on the line, I’ll count on another close game with a big number of points in my back pocket.

Tulane/Army Under 51.5: 7:00 PM CT on ABC

This game is shaping up as a slugfest, with two excellent running teams looking to play ball-control offense. Army ranks 1st and Tulane 8th nationally in run play percentage, so the ball will not be in the air often tonight, keeping the clock moving all game. Army is also one of the slowest-paced teams in the entire country that dominates time of possession, leading the country in that stat as well.

But the Black Knight offense is up against an elite defensive mind tonight that I think really stymies their ability to put much of anything on the board. Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has the solution for the service academy triple option. His teams have seen the triple option once in each of the past three seasons, allowing 9 total points in those games including a shutout of Navy this year. And with Tulane having to adjust to the cold in New York, look for this game to be slow-paced with both teams struggling to score.

NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks -4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on SportsNet LA

Things have gone sideways in a hurry for the Lakers with two straight blowout losses on the road. I think another might be coming here, and you just have to fade this team with how they’ve been playing and their laundry list of injured players. The number here has been creeping up, which is an indication to me that LeBron James might finally get some rest.

While that might strangely be some addition by subtraction, I don’t know who else LA can rely on with how shorthanded they are overall. With the defense down to 27th in defensive rating it’s a bad time to play the high-flying Hawks, who are on a roll with a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run, which I see getting extended tonight.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Illinois/Northwestern Over 143.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

I’m not entirely sure what to make of this game. On one hand, Chris Collins and Northwestern are one of the slowest teams in the country that want to rely on a strong defense, plus make up for allowing their game at Iowa this week to get away from their preferred style. And speaking of defense, Illinois brings the country’s top effective field goal percentage defense into this game.

But on the other hand, the Illini want to run all night, bring an excellent offense as well, and both teams have plenty of shooters. Plus, this rivalry got wild last season with 162 and 187 points scored in the two meetings, with Illinois crossing 90 in both games. Illinois has ramped up their tempo even higher this season, and the Wildcats couldn’t play at their preferred style against up-tempo Iowa, so my gut tells me that this total is too low.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.