Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/09 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Cincinnati Bengals/Dallas Cowboys Over 43.5

Tonight’s total opened pretty high and still got attention to the over despite Cooper Rush being one of the starting quarterbacks. That’s how bad the Cincinnati defense is, ranked 29th in EPA per play, 30th in success rate, and seemingly letting any team score plenty of points on them. The Bengals have given up 24 or more points in 9 games this season, and if that continues here then this adjusted total is well within reach. We know that the Bengals will put up points with their excellent offense, it’s just what happens to the Cowboys at home, but I think Dallas keeps up on the scoreboard to push this over.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys +11.5

This is a big number to be catching with a home team that’s still competing, especially against a defense that can’t stop anything. And yeah, obviously I’m going to back my Cowboys in this spot on a big number. As I mentioned above, Cincinnati’s defense is their biggest liability, and obviously there’s an expectation of a back-and-forth affair here with such a high total. If that kind of game plays out, I’d much rather be catching double digits and hope for a back door cover in the worst case scenario.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Of course Cincinnati is going to put up a lot of points in the first half, that’s just what visitors to Jerry World do. The past seven Cowboys home games have seen the visiting team average 21.6 points before halftime. Six in a row went over this total until Drew Lock and the anemic Giants offense visited on Thanksgiving, and even they put up 10 points. The Bengals bring an elite offense that can exploit the Dallas secondary and negate the pass rush with quick throws, which I see them doing with plenty of success to start the game.

Monday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Cooper Rush Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Cooper Rush Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (+130)

0.25 Unit – Joe Burrow Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jake Ferguson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Chase Brown Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Mike Gesicki Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +73.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.