Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/10 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Troy @ Houston -14.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Shockingly, we’re almost to mid-December and conference play is starting up in some leagues, so I’m not wasting opportunities with Houston hosting non-conference opponents. It’s always one of the better angles in college hoops to back the Cougars in the first half of games like this, as they’re perennially awesome in average first half margin. Houston ranks second in the country so far this season with a plus-15.6 average margin before halftime, a number that jumps to plus-26.3 at home.

They’re 3-1 against this particular spread in their non-conference home games and I think they get a fourth cover here in a favorable matchup. Troy is not a bad team but they are really bad at taking care of the ball, with the 8th-most turnovers per game and 5th-most on a per-possession basis. The one thing you do not want to do in Houston’s building is turn it over as the Cougars are one of the best at converting them into points, and I see them using that as their path to covering this number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) DePaul First Half Team Total Over 32.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on FS1

Speaking of teams that are good in first halves, DePaul has really come alive in that department this season. Their completely rebuilt roster has dominated before halftime, averaging 42.0 first half points which is good for 12th in the country. They even put 37 up on a good Texas Tech defense on the road in their last game, so returning home here should have them ready to continue their early game success. Providence is a good defense too, but I think this total is held down by one misunderstood statistic.

The Friars are a good perimeter defense and actually have the 19th-fewest three-pointers attempted per game against them, but that’s a function of not having played any three-point obsessed opponents. That will change tonight as DePaul hoists the 8th-most in the country and gets the 4th-highest distribution of points from beyond the arc. With the Blue Demons shooting 41.2% from downtown at home this season, enough of those makes will send them over this first half team total with ease.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Diego Team Total Under 72.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

If San Diego is taking the floor, my first look is to the under on their team total. Especially in a game like this where they’re a favorite which pushes their isolated total upwards, which is all the more ridiculous for an offensively inept team like this. The Toreros might fly up and down the court at the country’s 8th-fastest adjusted tempo, but it doesn’t do them any good since they’re 357th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 341st in effective field goal rate.

This will be a contrast in pace as Long Beach comes in with the 304th adjusted tempo, but The Beach slowing things down will only serve to limit San Diego’s possessions. The Toreros are only averaging 66.0 PPG and have only snuck over this total twice on the season, so in a matchup like this against an improving LBSU defense, I can only look to their under tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.