Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/11 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+155; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Depending on where you shop, this might be an alternate line so be sure to find this number with the juicy return. It’s not a total he’s reached with any consistency at all this season, actually falling short of it in 8 straight games, but I think tonight will be different. When the Knicks face a bad three-point defense, KAT tends to take advantage, and the three-point defense doesn’t get any worse than this.

Atlanta is dead last in three-point percentage allowed and three’s made per game, so an excellent Knicks offense and KAT in particular should capitalize on plenty of opportunity. He certainly did in the first meeting with the Hawks where he splashed 5 from deep, so I’m going to take a shot at this alt number and expect him to have another big night.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Dakota St +10.5 @ Nevada (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on Mountain West Network

This is a case where the analytics sites have Nevada at a margin that the market is moving the opposite direction from. I tend to agree with the sharp money in this case as this should be a tighter game and catching double digits is a nice cushion to have. I just don’t think Nevada should be power rated as highly as they are with the backcourt departures they suffered in the offseason.

Those have shown themselves in the past couple of games as the Wolfpack leans too heavily on Nick Davidson inside. South Dakota State should have the backcourt advantage with a couple of dynamic freshmen starting for them, plus a strong frontcourt to help neutralize Davidson down low.

The Jackrabbits also have a great three-point defense to slow down the shots Nevada is best at. With the Wolfpack likely to slow this game to a crawl as they’re 349th in adjusted tempo, I see a lower-scoring game where catching this many points is good value.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.