Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/14 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Army First Half Team Total Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on CBS

This Army team has one more opportunity to have one of their signature strong starts, and I think it leads to plenty of points before halftime for them. While Navy knows full well how to defend the service academy option, Army has the personnel and a few wrinkles to run it at a far more effective level than usual. That’s why they’ve ranked 7th in rush success, 4th in line yards, and 2nd in quality drives this season, all of which are areas where Navy’s defense has struggled.

Army has fallen down the ranks of first half scoring as the season goes on but still rank 24th with 17.2 points on average. They might do it methodically but Army’s first couple of drives almost always result in points, so against a defense they have big advantages over, I think they put up a big early number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Florida/Arizona St Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on SEC Network

These are two excellent offenses that I think will be the story despite the neutral court here. That angle is what I think might be holding the total down a bit since shooting can get difficult for two teams in a big arena they’re not used to. But metrics sites still projected this to get into the 150’s, and smart money immediately pushed it higher to here.

It’s a contrast in style as Florida likes to score inside and does it extremely well, while Arizona State likes to launch from deep and are an elite three-point shooting team. With the Gators owning the 7th-best offense by adjusted efficiency in the country, they should score easily on a Sun Devils defense that has struggled against other elite offenses they’ve faced. Both teams are relatively up-tempo so I agree with the sharp move that’s saying we’ll see plenty of points here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UC Irvine @ Oregon St -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN+

It’s impossible for me to not back Oregon State at home in this game. The Beavers are now undefeated against the spread, and have covered some sizable numbers in Corvallis, so getting them on a short spread is very attractive. Irvine is a very good team, undefeated, actually ranked higher in KenPom than the Beavers, and boasting one of the best statistical defenses in the country.

But the Anteaters haven’t played any opponents inside the top 100 at KenPom so this will be a shock to their system. The Beavers have a great defense themselves and are excellent at controlling games at home, especially down the stretch. So at this very short number where all they need to cover is a possession, I’ll back the power conference team in their own building.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) San Diego/Fresno St Under 152.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This total is very high because both teams will be flying up and down the floor. San Diego is always going to play up-tempo under Steve Lavin, ranking 16th in adjusted tempo this season. And new Fresno coach Vance Walberg has his team playing with their hair on fire, ranking first in the country for adjusted tempo.

But these teams are going to fly up and down the floor missing everything, as both are terrible offensively. The Bulldogs are fast, but they rank 347th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 345th in effective field goal rate. That’s not too dissimilar from San Diego who ranks 355th and 332nd in those respective categories. I’m just not seeing enough functional offense in this one despite the pace, so the high total is one that I don’t think they’ll be able to reach.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Oklahoma -4.5 vs Oklahoma St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPNU

The more I watch of Oklahoma State this season, the more I’m convinced that new head coach Steve Lutz has very little to work with. It seems he mostly just rolls the ball out there and says have at it, which is an undisciplined style that won’t work against an excellent Oklahoma team. In a rivalry game on a neutral court, I’ll definitely back the more experienced coach in Porter Moser. He has the Sooners rolling behind an excellent defense that will shut down the unorganized three-point shooting of the Cowboys. This is another case of a team in Oklahoma who is much more battle tested this season and has passed those tests unlike State, so I’ll lay the points here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.