Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/15 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Dallas Cowboys/Carolina Panthers First Half Over 21 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

It’s undeniable that the Panthers are playing better overall and specifically on offense in recent weeks. It’s that improved offense I’m counting on here as the Cowboys enter this game ranked 30th in first half points allowed. Not to be outdone though, the Panthers still check in dead last in that category, so defenses aren’t going to be doing much to slow the opponent down. So even mediocre to sub-par offenses should have an opportunity to thrive, and I say at least three touchdowns are on the board by halftime.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Dallas Cowboys +3 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

I’m biased here, and the first to admit it. Even when they make it tough on me I’m still a Cowboys fan, but come on now, we’re really making Bryce Young a full field goal favorite after the Panthers haven’t been favored in 2 years? Bet.

NFL (1 Unit) Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans -1 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I think this is a tough spot for Miami, who is walking a tightrope right now in chasing an unlikely playoff berth. That chase took it out of them last week in a difficult overtime win, and now they have to travel to face a rested Texans team off the bye. Houston is looking like a bet to expand on their 11-2 ATS record in first halves this season and I think they can with some matchup advantages.

Houston’s offense is far better in first halves than second according to DVOA, but it’s the defense that ranks first in DVOA before halftime which should make the difference here. With Miami’s defense conversely a bottom-5 unit before halftime, a rested and prepared Texans team should take a lead into half.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Buffalo Bills/Detroit Lions First Quarter Over 10.5 (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 3:25 PM CT on CBS

These two excellent offenses, ranked 2nd and 4th in EPA/play this season, should have no trouble cutting through wounded defenses early today. With Detroit shorthanded up front and Buffalo having key injuries to their secondary, I see both offenses having plenty of success on their scripted portions of the game. These are two strong scoring teams early in games, and significantly below-average scoring defenses for the first quarter this season. I think both teams put up points on their opening possessions, and I’m willing to bet that it will be two touchdowns.

Sunday NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Chuba Hubbard Over 102.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Brian Robinson Jr Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Josh Allen Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Khalil Shakir Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Courtland Sutton Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Nico Collins Anytime TD (+135)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.