Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/17 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Memphis -5.5 vs West Virginia (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

This bowl has seen massive line movement towards Memphis, and that usually only means one thing. Somebody seems to know about personnel issues for West Virginia, because the number has moved and is continuing to move against them. This should be a relatively simple matchup for Memphis to exploit if they unleash Seth Hennigan against a bad defense.

The Tigers can throw it all over the yard today against a Mountaineers defense ranked 129th in pass success allowed and 131st in PFF coverage. Memphis has momentum both on the field and in the market for this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them roll today.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Oakland/Michigan St Under 134.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This game should be slow, focused on defense, and will probably see both teams struggle to shoot it at a neutral court in Detroit. I’m hoping because it’s a neutral court that Oakland will have an easier time setting the pace here to their preferred style, which is 358th in adjusted tempo as the Grizzlies take the longest time on offense of anyone in the country.

Michigan State isn’t terribly fast-paced either, and I don’t know that such a slow tempo will allow them to really turn this into a blowout that threatens the total. The Spartans won’t bury anyone under a barrage of three’s since they’re 341st in three-point percentage and 358th in the percent of points they get from beyond the arc. That will allow Oakland to focus inside the arc, which is the strength of their defense, and keep this game at a crawl which keeps it under the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +76.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.