Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/19 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Denver Broncos/LA Chargers First Half Under 20.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

With the way these two teams play, a short week situation like this should create a slow and boring start tonight. We have two teams with excellent defenses squaring off, and offenses that I’m not sure can find much success. Important for this bet is the fact that the Chargers allow the fewest first half points in the league, and already blanked the Broncos before halftime in the first meeting.

But this Broncos defense is playing some of the best football in the league, even if it has come against a soft schedule. That softness continues tonight though, with the Chargers offense having cratered since JK Dobbins was hurt, plus Justin Herbert dealing with injury here. I’ve watched Denver games get wild with late scoring quite a bit this season, so I’m going to isolate the first half where two strong defenses should be the main theme.

NBA (0.5 Unit) New York Knicks Team Total Under 106.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on TNT

Well this is an interesting game. Karl-Anthony Towns returns to Target Center for the first time, so I’m sure emotions will be high in this one. But I think that helps the Wolves continue to clamp down defensively, and they should hold the Knicks to another low output. Whatever clicked with this team in late November has held up, only allowing one team to clear this total in the 7 games since.

Minnesota is allowing an absurdly low 90.7 PPG in that stretch, and their deeper metrics show a defense that’s in another league right now. Games at Target Center this season have seen the second-lowest average margin to the total in the NBA, so that creates a lot of cushion to keep the Knicks under this number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.