Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/22 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals -2: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

There’s the slimmest of chances, but still a chance, that the Bengals could sneak into the playoffs. While most people can’t see it happening, I don’t think the Bengals will do anything but take this game seriously, and should capitalize on getting to play an awful team in their playoff chase. The Browns have fully embraced the tank by starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson today, who even against the Cincinnati defense should remind us why he’s awful. Joe Burrow doesn’t mess around against bad teams, going 12-3 ATS against his past 15 opponents with a losing record, so knocking 7 points off the number is great value.

LA Rams/NY Jets Over 39.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Aaron Rodgers might be getting himself back into the news in typical Aaron Rodgers fashion, but you have to acknowledge his and this offense’s improvement in recent weeks. The passing game has taken off against some questionable secondaries, and they’ll see another today with the Rams ranked 23rd in EPA/play against the pass. But the Jets have also been awful on defense since firing Robert Saleh, have allowed 28.4 PPG the past 5 weeks, and are banged up in the secondary. The way the Rams can attack should keep the struggles coming for the Jets defense, and I see a sneaky shootout brewing here.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills -7: 3:25 PM CT on CBS

The Bills aren’t typically a good ATS bet when laying a big number, but cutting that number in half is a lot different. They do like to beat up on bad teams this time of year as a flex ahead of the playoffs, especially when the opponent is a division rival. I think the big key here is that Buffalo is going to actively try to score in the 30’s, which would make them the first team in NFL history to hang 30 or more in 9 straight games. With a bad opponent like New England in town, the Bills trying to get to 30 should see them cover this teased number on accident.

NFL (1 Unit) Buffalo Bills Team Total Over 30.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on CBS

If they’re actively going to try to get into the 30’s, then the Patriots are not going to be able to stop them. New England ranks 28th in overall defensive EPA/play along with 26th in success rate. Importantly, they’re also 30th in EPA/play against the pass, so Josh Allen and the offense should be able to throw their way to plenty of points as they tune up the passing game. The angle of Buffalo looking for history today should be enough, and I think this red hot offense gets themselves into the record books.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Detroit Lions -3.5 First Half @ Chicago Bears (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Detroit has more than their share of injuries that probably have crushed their hopes overall this season, but that doesn’t mean they don’t start games strong. I have to keep backing the best first half team of the past three seasons, as the Lions are 37-13-1 ATS in first halves which includes 13-2-1 in divisional games. The Bears have cratered since Thomas Brown took over as head coach, and have compiled a 53-0 first half deficit in the past 3 games combined. A motivated Lions team should get out to a strong start here, there’s just no other way to approach this game.

NFL (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Buccaneers First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

Sunday Night Football games have trended lower-scoring lately, but that doesn’t mean I can get away from one of the strongest trends going in the NFL recently. The Cowboys have allowed 20.1 first half points per game at home this season, allowing every opponent since last year’s Wild Card game to cross this total aside from the pitiful Drew Lock Giants who put up 10 on Thanksgiving. This Bucs offense is red hot, looking unstoppable now that Mike Evans is back, and are now 4th in offensive EPA/play so they should further the Dallas defense’s early woes.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 115.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+230)

0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Over 1.5 Anytime TD’s (+450)

0.75 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

1 Unit – Cade Otton Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +71.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.