Gambling

Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/23 – Zone Coverage

Published

8 hours ago

December 23, 2024

Admin

Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/23 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Josh Jacobs Over 90.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:!5 PM CT on ESPN

Josh Jacobs has turned into an elite level running back thanks primarily to an excellent scheme and a ton of carries. He should probably get even more than his typical workload tonight given the matchup that Matt LaFleur is probably drooling over. The Packers are a run-first team under LaFleur, and should carve up a Saints defense ranked 30th in EPA/play against the run.

To get a sense of Jacobs’ involvement tonight, consider that his rush attempts prop sits at 21.5, which is 3 more than any other game this season and 5 more than the average the past 10 weeks, so he’s getting heavy usage. If he continues to gain 4.3 yards per carry and gets that many touches he’ll sneak over this total, but the bad Saints run defense should make it easier on him than that.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz/Cleveland Cavaliers 1st Half Over 114 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OH

You have to take advantage of Cleveland being at home against a bad defense, and I think the Cavs do the bulk of the scoring here. They’re leading the league in first half scoring at home with 66.1 points on average, and that creates a nice foundation for reaching this total. They’re likely to eclipse that average since they face a Jazz team that’s now dead last in the NBA for defensive rating.

Utah is 26th in first half points allowed, but I think they’ll contribute plenty here as well. The Cavs are mostly an average scoring defense in first halves, notably ranking 20th in second quarter points allowed, and have to contend with a mostly healthy Jazz offense. It’s the second quarters of Cavalier home games that typically get wild, so look for another high-scoring first half in Cleveland tonight.