Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/31 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Baylor/LSU Over 57.5: 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

Don’t tease college football totals, generally speaking. But it’s bowl season, so a lot of rules become suggestions as you try to navigate the weirdness of opt-outs, injuries, and the transfer portal. That’s why there’s often significant steam hitting certain numbers, like the total in this game that has been bet up to 63.5 on good news about participation from both rosters. So I want to erase that steam and bring this total back to a more palatable number.

As long as quarterbacks Sawyer Robertson for Baylor and Garrett Nussmeier for LSU are playing, I’m expecting points. Both can really sling it, and both have a never-ending supply of playmakers. Opt-outs at some skill positions and the offensive line for LSU are troubling, but this program is never short on depth and I think they’ll be able to put up points behind Nussmeier. As long as they throw it on Baylor and as long as the Bears return the favor, which they both should as pass defense is neither team’s strength, we’ll see both teams go up and down the field with ease.

Penn St/Boise St Over 47.5: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

I think this opening quarterfinal game gets over the regular total tonight, but I’d much prefer to shave off 6 points and get below a few key numbers. Usually I’d be concerned about Penn State flopping on this big stage, but their offense has hit a different gear since a frustrating loss to Ohio State two months ago. The Nittany Lions have averaged 38.2 PPG since then, and against defenses much stronger than what Boise offers.

The Broncos struggled defensively against the top offenses they faced this season, most notably Oregon as that’s the closest comparison to Penn State. There’s never any answer to All-American tight end Tyler Warren, but he and the PSU two-headed running back monster should especially shred a Boise defense that’s 132nd in tackling. But the Broncos will not go quietly tonight as the rightful Heisman winner is rested and ready, plus this offense is one of the best at turning drives into points. This game projects to the high-50’s so at this adjusted number I’m really liking the over.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona St/BYU Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN2

BYU games typically turn into three-point contests, and that’s a style that should suit Arizona State just fine. The Cougars are 56th nationally in three-point percentage, and just 242nd in three-point percentage allowed. That helps to explain why they’re 23rd in the split of points they get from downtown, while 358th in the split of points they allow opponents to get from deep.

Arizona State won’t have any issue with that kind of game, as the Sun Devils love to fire from deep as well, generating the vast majority of their scoring output from long range. They do it well too, shooting it from outside at the country’s 26th-best percentage. These are just two very good shooting teams, and relatively up-tempo as well, so with both being profitable to the over this season, I see another at this reachable number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Nevada Team Total Under 73.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on MWN

Utah State heads to Reno here with an almost perfect resume that isn’t getting enough credit. They specifically don’t get enough praise for how good the defense has been, and I think it shows up in a big way again tonight.

Nevada just isn’t the kind of team to hang big numbers, especially in conference play where they’ve already struggled offensively, putting up 64 and 63 points in losses to lesser defenses. The Wolfpack are the 4th-slowest team in the country, so there’s no danger of this game turning into a track meet. They’re also just 306th in three-point attempts, so there won’t be a barrage of three’s from them.

Utah State should be able to pack the interior and focus on slowing Nick Davidson, which should neutralize a lot of Nevada’s offense. The Aggies have only allowed three opponents to go over this total on the year, and even held Iowa’s elite offense to just 69 points. So after two excellent defensive showings to start Mountain West play, I think they hold down a suspect Nevada offense tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +73.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.