Tournament Implications on the line as Eagles travel to Notre Dame

Game Schedule (All Games ACCNX)

Friday 6:30pm

Saturday 2pm

Sunday 1pm

As we’ve gone beyond the halfway point, every ACC series will be extremely important in order to make the NCAA Tournament, especially this weekend as the Eagles travel to South Bend to face the Fighting Irish.  Looking at Notre Dame, you may see the 2-16 ACC record and expect a walkover.  Not the case with this team.  5 of those losses were 1 run losses, including 2 vs. Atlantic Division leader Clemson.  They defend the ball well (.982 2nd best in ACC) and the 2 teams are at the bottom of the ACC in ERA (ND is 194th nationally, BC 195th).  BC has a better top of the rotation, which as I said in the message board this week this is where you need West and Colarusso to perform this weekend.  Not one Notre Dame pitcher has averaged over 4 innings per appearance, so BC will get a bunch of different looks from guys that will allow some baserunners (Team Average 1.54 WHIP).   There are 3 guys that have ERA’s under 5 that pitch regularly.  Jack Radel will more than likely be the Friday Starter.  Statistically, Radel is  the Irish’s best arm, having made 10 appearances (6 starts), and holds an ERA of 3.44.   The Freshman RHP has made some quality appearances (Last 3 Starts:  4 IP 1 R vs. NC State, 5 IP 2 R start vs. Clemson, 4.2 IP 3 R vs UNC), so if he can get ND off to a good start, the Irish will be in a game.  Matt Bedford will be another starter for ND, having gone 1-5 with a 6.06 ERA.  Third starter spot has been a mix of guys, with Rory Fox (1-1 6.39 ERA) being the latest guy to hold down that spot.

Offensively, ND has the lowest BA in the conference (.274).  The 3 starters hitting over .300 are TJ Williams, Estevan Moreno, and Brady Gumpf.  Williams (.367 5 HR 24 RBI 8 SB) is a right handed hitting Senior OF, who will hit leadoff for the Irish.  Moreno (.320 7 26) is a sophomore infielder that has hit in the top 3 or bottom 3 spots this year while Gumpf (.309 5 20) is a senior right handed hitting outfielder.  ND has a bunch of guys with 5-7 HR this year, with only 1 guy in double digits (David Glancy 11).  

Where does BC stand for a tournament berth?  At 7-11 in the ACC, I feel that the team needs to get to 14 wins to have a reasonable shot to get in.  RPI is currently 44, which is Bubble for sure.  Get the RPI into the 30s would make life easier.  The RPI is collaborated by “Points”.  BC is currently 40 “points” behind #37 TCU.   Here is a look of “Impact Games” on BC’s RPI today (and all weekend) and what the “points” look like in each game today:  

BC at Notre Dame (BC wins +33 pts, lose -27 pts)

Pitt at Clemson (Pitt wins +6.7 pts, Clemson wins -5.3 pts)

Duke at VT (VT wins +3.5 pts, Duke wins -8.4 pts)

UNC at NC State (NCST wins +4.6 pts, UNC wins -6.9 pts)

GT at UVA (GT wins +4.3, UVA wins -7.3)

FSU at WF (FSU wins -5.6 pts, WF wins -5.6 pts)

Tex Arlington at Utah Valley (UTA wins +6.5, UTA loses -4.4)

UCONN at Georgetown (UCONN Wins +4, loses -3.7)

UNCW at Northeastern (UNCW Wins -4.3, Northeastern wins -.5)

Niagara at Siena (Siena wins 3.4, loses -.8)

Ohio State at Michigan (OSU wins 1.9, loses -2.2)

Oregon St at Cal (Cal wins 1.5, loses -2.3)

Merrimack at Norfolk St (M wins 2.3, loses -1.5)

Okla State at Kansas St (KSt wins 1.5, loses -2.3)

Dayton at VCU (VCU wins 1.3, loses -2.4)

William & Mary at Charleston (WM wins 1.2, loses -2.5)

Richmond at Davidson (Rich wins 2.1, loses -1.6)